The NFC East is up for grabs and if the Redskins want to claim the division title, they’ll have to win on the road. It will be a challenge since they have yet to do that this season. There is hope against a Bears team that struggles at home. Chicago gift-wrapped a Niners win last week, falling to 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS at Soldier Field this season.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Chicago Bears -3
Washington Redskins +3
Over/Under 44
ODDS ANALYSIS
The inability of Washington to win a road game was a factor in the line being wagered to Chicago -3.5. The Skins are 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS away from home and the splits have been huge. The Bears haven’t been much better at home, making Washington the smart play with the points.
KEY INJURIES
Jason Hatcher – Is listed as questionable with what he said was a pinched nerve in his neck. The Skins’ starting defensive lineman could be joined on the sidelines by Stephen Paea, who has a sprained toe, leaving the team thin up front.
Martellus Bennett – Was lost for the year with a cracked rib, taking the top pass catcher and best blocking tight end on running plays off the field for the Bears. Zach Miller and Khari Lee will take over in two-tight end sets with Rob Housler likely to get more snaps.
KEY MISMATCH
The Bears have suddenly become quite adept at protecting Jay Cutler, thanks in part to offensive coordinator Adam Gase’s reliance on get-the-ball-out-quick screen passes, particularly against more aggressive defenses, and eliminating the five-step drops that used to lead to sack after sack. In turn, Cutler is having one of his finest seasons since the joining the Bears. His current rating of 90.1 would be the highest in his career and the interceptions have been less of an issue. He’s thrown just seven in 11 games and has never had so few picks in that many games. Chicago quarterbacks have been sacked only 20 times this season and hit just 57 times. Only six teams have sacked opposing quarterbacks less often than the Redskins, who have accumulated 21 through 12 games, tied for 25th in the league. So far this season under new defensive coordinator Joe Barry, the Skins blitz on 13.9 percent of plays, lower than all but two teams. They like to keep seven players in coverage and defend on pass plays rather than create open space vacated by attacking linebackers or defensive backs.
KEY STAT
46.1 – Chicago’s red zone touchdown percentage. The Bears rank 27th in this category and their inability to hit paydirt cost them last week. They face a Redskins defense that is 12th in the NFL in opponent red zone efficiency.
BETTING ANGLE
The Redskins have played some good teams on the road. They’re just not a very strong team so they’ve struggled to win. And by struggling, I mean they haven’t won at all. To stay in the NFC East race and perhaps win the division, the Skins must play three of their last four games on the road starting Sunday. It’s not an ideal situation for a team that’s 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS away from home. The only road game the Skins had a chance to win was in Atlanta. But they fell in overtime. The four other losses have all been by double digits and were decided entering the fourth quarter. The Redskins have been outscored 162-86 with a minus-6 turnover differential on the road, and they continue to search for answers. Chicago hasn’t played well at Soldier Field, going 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS, so that could help Washington. But the Bears’ six opponents at home thus far have a 45-27 combined record.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
The Bears allowed several big plays last week against San Francisco’s pop-gun offense in a gut-wrenching overtime loss that ended their slim hopes of reaching the postseason. Chicago faces one of the biggest play makers of them all this week in Washington’s DeSean Jackson, who has nine more touchdown catches of 50 yards or longer than anyone else in the league since he burst on the scene in 2008. But quarterback Kirk Cousins has as much trouble on the road as the team does. His QBR is a pathetic 41.5 on the road and he’s been picked eight times. So getting the ball to Jackson could be problematic. Don’t expect a lot of points in this game with the difficulties of both teams. Also, don’t expect Bears’ kicker Robbie Gould to miss two field goals like he did last week. In a game that comes down to three-pointers, the Bears have the edge and get the win.
Chicago 22, Washington 20
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