The Jags are knocking on the door of first place in the AFC South and made a statement by dismantling the kings of the division last week. They have a favorable schedule to close out the season, beginning with a tilt against the struggling Falcons, who have lost six straight games and are 0-9 ATS in their last nine.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Jacksonville Jaguars -3.5
Atlanta Falcons +3.5
Over/Under 47
ODDS ANALYSIS
Atlanta is on the verge of becoming the first team since the 1970 AFL/NFL merger to start a season 5-0 and finish below .500. The Falcons have given their backers headaches also, going a remarkable nine straight games without covering the spread. Jacksonville has been one of the top over teams, playing above the final total in each of their last three with the over 9-4 on the season. The line was wagered to Jacksonville -3 while the total spiked to 49.
KEY INJURIES
William Moore – Atlanta’s starting strong safety exited last week’s game at Carolina with an ankle injury and listed as day-to-day. One of the Falcons top run stoppers would likely be replaced by Kemal Ishmael in the secondary.
T.J. Yeldon – Left Sunday’s game with an injured foot and did not return. He was replaced by Denard Robinson, who had 75 yards on 14 carries against the Colts. If Yeldon is out for any length of time the Jags will be thin at running back. Robinson and Joe Banyard are the only backs on the active roster.
KEY MISMATCH
If the Jaguars had been able to utilize Rashad Greene all year, they might have had a couple more wins. Greene once again showed his value as a punt returner with a 73-yeard return for a touchdown Sunday in Jacksonville’s 51-16 romp over Indianapolis. That comes on the heels of a 63-yard return against Tennessee that set up a Jags touchdown. He now has returned 11 punts for 230 yards, a 20.9 yard average. Greened missed seven games, however, when he was out with a broken bone in his forearm. Since his return, he’s returned eight punts for 193 yards in the last four games. The Falcons have struggled in every aspect during their six-game losing streak, including special teams. Tampa Bay averaged over 20 yards per return two weeks ago. Greene can flip the field with his returns and the Falcons better be aware when punting, what is something they’ve done a lot of the last two months.
KEY STAT
21.5 – Atlanta’s points per game average. The Falcons averaged just 14.3 points over their past six games and face Jacksonville’s 31st-ranked scoring defense.
BETTING ANGLE
Incredibly the Jaguars are still in contention for the AFC South title, just one game behind the Colts and Texans. Those teams play each other this week and the Jaguars still have a game remaining against Houston. The Jags have a favorable schedule remaining with games against the struggling Falcons and the 5-8 Saints before closing the season at Houston. Jacksonville has been clicking offensively and played over the closing total in each of its last three games. For the football season the over is 9-4. Atlanta has been a wreck going 0-9 ATS in its last nine games with the under going 8-0-1 in that span.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
The Jags hammered the Colts last week, taking out a bunch of frustration against their division rival. The win also keeps Jacksonville within spitting distance of the top spot in the AFC South and with a less than imposing schedule the rest of the way, dare we say the Jags are in position to win the division. Atlanta hit bottom with a 38-0 loss at Carolina and coach Dan Quinn was upset over a lack of effort from his team. At least they were competitive in their previous five losses with the combined margin in those games less than it was last week against the Panthers. The Falcons have given up after a promising start and the Jags are starting to put things together, especially on the offensive end.
Jacksonville 27, Atlanta 20
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