Rex Ryan broke his playoff promise to Buffalo and the Bills are likely playing out the string without a postseason invitation for the 16th straight season, the longest drought in the four major pro sports leagues. The Bills can cripple the Redskins’ chances of claiming the NFC East with a win in our nation’s capital, but their recent road woes played a big part in their failures. Buffalo is 0-3 SU and 0-2-1 ATS in their last three road games.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Washington Redskins 0
Buffalo Bills 0
Over/Under 44
ODDS ANALYSIS
Buffalo is still getting some love from the betting public despite their inability to win on the road. The line was wagered from a pick em to Buffalo -1. Curios considering the Bills are 0-3 SU and 0-2-1 ATS in their last three road games while the Skins are 5-2 SU at home.
KEY INJURIES
Charles Clay – His status is uncertain after he hurt his back against the Eagles last week. Clay leads the Bills in receptions from his tight end spot and would be replaced by Chris Gragg if he can’t go.
Derek Carrier – Tore ligaments in his right knee against the Bears last week and is finished for the season. He is the third Washington tight end to sustain a season-ending knee injury this year. The Skins finished the game with Jordan Reed as their only tight end. Former Bengal Alex Smith was signed earlier this week to address the deficit. Je’Ron Hamm is also on the 53-man roster.
KEY MISMATCH
After his monster performance against Chicago last week, Washington’s Jordan Reed ranks among the NFL’s top tight ends in several statistical categories. Reed is second with 67 receptions, fourth with seven touchdowns, fifth with 39 first downs, and his 694 receiving yards place him seventh. All of those numbers represent career-highs for the third-year player. Not bad for a guy who missed a few games earlier this season with a concussion. The lofty numbers are a product of three factors, according to coach Jay Gruden. He’s managed to stay in the lineup. He reads defenses better and has developed a rapport with quarterback Kirk Cousins. Reed is a gifted, athletic player with strong hands to make the difficult catches in traffic. He also runs precise routes and is patient, creating a friendly target for his quarterback. And on a team with DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon, he leads the Skins in receptions, targets, yards, touchdowns, first downs and plays of 20 or more yards.
KEY STAT
141.8 – Buffalo’s average rushing yards per game. The Bills’ third-ranked ground attack goes against Washington’s 24th-ranked run defense.
BETTING ANGLE
The Bills are coming off an emotional loss, especially for LeSean McCoy, but they enter this game with history on their side. The Bills are 6-0 SU and ATS in their past six contests against the Redskins. Buffalo lost three of its last four games with each of those defeats coming on the road going 0-2-1 ATS. In those three losses the Bills came out flat in the second half and averaged just 8.7 points after the break. Coach Rex Ryan criticized quarterback Tyrod Taylor a day after a 23-20 loss to Philadelphia all but ended Buffalo’s playoff chances. “You’ll never be considered a great quarterback until you bring your team back and win in those situations,” Ryan said. The Bills have been at their best when Taylor is not required to win the game with his arm. They’re 6-0 when he throws 29 or fewer passes and 6-1 when he doesn’t turn the ball over.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
As long as the Bills don’t need Taylor to try and win the game with his arm they should be alright. And that’s the case against the Skins. Buffalo relies on its running game and with Karlos Williams ready to return to the lineup, the ground attack with him and McCoy will once again be the featured part of Buffalo’s attack. The Skins have had difficulty stopping the run and if the Bills can control the ball on the ground, their chances of winning drastically increase. Of course that’s a big if, but the Redskins do allow better than 121 yards per game. Ryan will turn to his horses in the backfield, limit the passing opportunities for Taylor, and the Bills will come away with a win while delivering a blow to Washington’s chances of winning the NFC East.
Buffalo 27, Washington 23
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