Cincinnati took a blow to the gut last week with the loss of Andy Dalton. Now it’s up to A.J. McCarron to make sure the Bengals don’t go down with him. They couldn’t ask for a better opponent in the 49ers, who tip-toed through an embarrassing loss in Cleveland. The Niners have been respectable at Levi’s Stadium, though, going 3-3 SU and 4-2 ATS through their first six.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
San Francisco 49ers +4
Cincinnati Bengals -4
Over/Under 42
ODDS ANALYSIS
The loss of Dalton hasn’t turned the betting public off the Bengals. The line was wagered to Cincinnati -5. However, the total tumbled to 40.5, so there could be concerns about the Bengals ability to move the football. Or the Niners will struggle again facing one of the better defenses in the league. Either way the under has plenty of value.
KEY INJURIES
Andy Dalton – Is out after breaking his thumb in last week’s loss to Pittsburgh. The Bengals turn to McCarron as their starting quarterback. Keith Wenning was promoted from the practice squad to serve as the backup.
Tyler Eifert – Sustained a concussion last week and has yet to be cleared from the protocol for such injuries. Tyler Kroft would likely get the start if Eifert is unable to play.
Alex Boone – The Niners starting guard is out after a knee injury in Cleveland last week. A weak O-line suffered a big blow with the loss. Ian Silberman is likely to take over.
KEY MISMATCH
Cincinnati’s defense held a sixth straight opponent under 100 rushing yards last week but did give up its second-highest point total of the season – though two touchdowns came after McCarron’s interceptions. The Bengals, allowing 17.6 points per game to rank second in the NFL, could return to the form that yielded 10 points in victories over St. Louis and Cleveland in the previous two games. The Niners are last in the NFL with averages of 14.5 points and 289.4 yards, including just 221 last week against Cleveland. The Bengals fierce defensive front could pose problems for a shaky Niners offensive line. Cincy’s Carlos Dunlap and Geno Atkins are the only teammates to rank in the top 12 in quarterback sacks. Dunlap is sixth with 10.5 while Atkins ranks 12th with 8.0. The Bengals have totaled 34 sacks on the season and face a wobbly SF line that has surrendered a NFL-high 45 sacks, including nine last week.
KEY STAT
17.6 – Cincinnati’s points per game allowed. The Bengals are second in the NFL in fewest points against and face San Francisco’s league-worst scoring offense.
BETTING ANGLE
Recent history isn’t on McCarron’s side. Former Alabama quarterbacks like him haven’t had a very good track record the past 25 years as it pertains to winning games as starting NFL quarterbacks. The league’s short list of past Tide signal-callers who have played in that time are on a 13-game losing streak. McCarron replaces the injured Dalton and has a chance to finally give past Alabama quarterbacks a win when he makes his first career NFL start. With a win Sunday, the Bengals also can earn a playoff berth and – with help – their fourth division title.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
The Bengals will get a chance to see if McCarron can lead the team, as he takes over for Dalton. Cincy did get some good news on their injured quarterback. He won’t need surgery on his thumb and could be back for the playoffs. The Bengals can punch their ticket to the postseason with a win. Cincinnati will look to take advantage of a Niners defense that allowed 230 rushing yards in Cleveland last week, and they should be able to with their tandem of Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard. The Bengals own a top defense and the Niners have had difficulty all season scoring. Things won’t be much different Sunday. San Francisco has played much better at home all season going 3-3 SU and 4-2 ATS. Facing a backup quarterback in his first start could keep the game close, but Cincy’s D will come up with a few turnovers that turns the score in their favor for a cover win.
Cincinnati 23, San Francisco 13
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