Detroit’s mid-season resurgence was thwarted by a stunning loss to Green Bay two weeks ago on a Hail Mary and the Lions’ hopes of a return trip to the postseason officially ended in a loss to St. Louis last week. Detroit’s inability to compete on the road was a major factor. The Lions are just 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS away from Ford Field.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
New Orleans Saints -3
Detroit Lions +3
Over/Under 50
ODDS ANALYSIS
The Saints are back to being favored and that’s not good for them. Playing as the underdog in the past three games, New Orleans covered twice. Prior to that the Saints were favored in three straight and failed to cover in any, losing two straight-up while allowing 130 points. The total rose to 51 while the spread remained at New Orleans -3.
KEY INJURIES
Brandon Pettigrew – Detroit’s starting tight end was placed on injured reserve after he tore his ACL last week against St. Louis. That should mean more targets for Eric Ebron, who was the team’s first-round pick last season.
Marcus Murphy – The Saints’ primary kickoff and punt returner landed on injured reserve this week after suffering a high ankle sprain against Tampa Bay last Sunday. C.J. Spiller is listed as the backup in both spots. But the Saints are thin at running back so it’s possible they could turn to someone else.
KEY MISMATCH
Drew Brees carved up the Buccaneers in surgical fashion last week, and he’s completed 55 passes for nearly 600 yards and five touchdowns in the past two games. The decorated passer was a true difference-maker in the Saints win last week, and he’ll be gunning for another productive performance in front of a national audience. Standing in his way will be Detroit’s pass-rushing machine, defensive end Ezekiel Ansah. After registering 15 sacks combined in his first two seasons, Ansah has 13.5 in his third year, and he’s been a pest for opposing offenses. Saints’ left tackle Terron Armstead, who’s been battling a knee injury in recent weeks, will likely have the chore of blocking Ansah on a majority of plays, though right tackle Zach Strief will draw the occasional assignment. If New Orleans can keep Ziggy in check, Brees should have time to deliver the football to his trusted targets. If not, the offense could sputter.
KEY STAT
30.5 – New Orleans’ points per game allowed. The Saints are last in the NFL in scoring defense but had their finest effort of the season last week. They face the 28th-ranked scoring offense of the Lions.
BETTING ANGLE
The Saints tend to fall apart when they are expected to win as they are just 2-9-1 in their past 12 games as the favorite. New Orleans opened as 3-point chalk against the Lions. The Saints’ defense bounced back last week after one of their worst performances of the season the previous week, holding the Buccaneers to just 17 points and 291 yards. Brees has been phenomenal in the Superdome this season with a 71.5 completion percentage, 17 touchdowns and five interceptions. He said the team takes pride in its success in prime time games at home, where the Saints have won 16 of their last 17 games, including playoffs. The Lions are coming off a loss to St. Louis and have faltered on the road this season with a 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS record.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
It seems so easy, yet it’s been extremely difficult. The Saints struggled all season with the worst defense in the league and it cost Rob Ryan his job. There has been improvement since former Raiders’ coach Dennis Allen took over and last week was the most sold effort of the year. The Saints held Tampa Bay to a season-low in points against while surrendering just 291 total yards. The reason, according to coach Sean Payton, is better communication and a simplified scheme. The Lions can’t run the football and the Saints front seven should be able to win its share of battles giving Brees and the offense opportunities. Tim Hightower has been a revelation filling in for injured running back Mark Ingram and will likely get upwards of 20 carries against Detroit’s porous run defense. The Saints will use the deafening roar of the home crowd as inspiration in handing the Lions another road defeat.
New Orleans 27, Detroit 21
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