Forgive the Packers if they peak past the Raiders to games against Arizona and Minnesota to close out the season. But Green Bay has a chance to secure a postseason berth for a franchise-record seventh-straight year, quite an accomplishment for a team that resides in Titletown, USA.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Oakland Raiders +3
Green Bay Packers -3
Over/Under 46
ODDS ANALYSIS
Green Bay has had plenty of success against the AFC West recently going 12-2 SU and 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games against the division. One of those losses came at Denver last month, starting an 0-3 stretch that landed them behind the Vikings briefly in the NFC North. The Pack has recovered with a 3-1 SU and ATS run. The total jumped to 47.5.
KEY INJURIES
Sam Shields – Green Bay’s top cornerback sustained a concussion last week and has yet to pass the league-mandated protocol for head injuries. His absence opens the door for first-round pick Damarious Randall to make the start.
Nate Allen – Missed last week’s game with Denver due to a knee injury and is questionable to return Sunday. He was replaced at strong safety by Taylor Mays, who is in line to start again if Allen isn’t ready.
Jon Condo – Oakland’s long snapper was put on injured reserve and will have surgery on his ailing shoulder. Thomas Gafford, who has played with Kansas City and Chicago, will take over the duties.
KEY MISMATCH
With coach Mike McCarthy back as play-caller, the Packers ran the football 42 times, produced a season-high 230 rushing yards and dominated time of possession with 37 minutes, 48 seconds in their rout of Dallas last week. The Pack will need more of the same to keep Raiders’ outside linebacker Khalil Mack away from quarterback Aaron Rodgers. Mack accounted for a team-record five sacks against Denver last week and was unstoppable. Mack now leads the league with 14 sacks and will face a Green Bay line – all of them – that is still recovering from injuries. Tackles Bryan Bulaga and David Bakhtiari will have the chore of trying to stop Mack, who typically lines up on the strong side of the defense. He had all but one of his sacks last week positioned on the left side of the defense, which puts Bulaga on the spot. Rodgers has been dropped 31 times, the fourth-most in the NFC and will likely get well-acquainted with Mack.
KEY STAT
18.8 – Green Bay’s points per game allowed. The Packers’ sixth-ranked scoring defense has allowed an average of 15.6 points over their last five games and face an Oakland offense ranked 15th in scoring.
BETTING ANGLE
Raiders free safety Charles Woodson, released by the Packers following the 2012 season when he was due $9 million in salary, is looking forward to showing Green Bay, as well as the rest of the league, he still has something left three seasons later. Woodson has five interceptions, three fumble recoveries and is the Raiders’ second-leading tackler. He is in his third season with Oakland, which has signed him to one-year contracts. Other than Denver, Woodson got almost no interest throughout the league as a 36-year-old free agent. Earlier this season, Woodson picked off two passes from 1998 draft classmate Peyton Manning, the first of his career over the man he edged out for the Heisman Trophy that year.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
The Packers appear to be in a good place now that McCarthy has taken over the play-calling duties. With more reliance on the run game and keeping Rodgers in structure, the Packers looked a lot like the Super Bowl contender they were expected to be in last week’s demolition of Dallas. Rodgers is likely to benefit the most from the change and Green Bay’s two-pronged rushing attack could present problems for the Raiders defense. Oakland has shut down productive ground attacks, but none of those rushing offenses came with one of the best quarterbacks in the league, who’s capable of taking off on his own. The Raiders will make life tough for Rodgers and his struggling receivers, but the Pack’s collective ground attack should wear down Oakland’s front and clinch another postseason trip in Titletown.
Green Bay 28, Oakland 20
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