In what could be San Diego’s final game at Qualcomm Stadium, the Chargers might be headed up I-5 having matched the franchise’s longest home losing streak if they can’t beat the Dolphins. A nice going away gift for the fans who have supported the club for the past 55 years. The Chargers haven’t won at home since Oct. 4 going 0-5 SU and ATS in their own yard since then.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
San Diego Chargers -1.5
Miami Dolphins +1.5
Over/Under 45
ODDS ANALYSIS
The line was wagered to San Diego -2 even though the Chargers are 0-5 SU and ATS in their last five at Qualcomm. There obviously hasn’t been a home field advantage with the fans staying away as the club is looking at a move to the Los Angeles area. The total spiked a half-point to 45.5.
KEY INJURIES
Earl Mitchell – Miami’s starting defensive tackle is doubtful to play Sunday due to a calf injury. That could mean Jordan Phillips gets the start in his place.
Jelani Jenkins – Had to leave last week’s game with an ankle injury and didn’t practice with the team early this week. Neville Hewitt or Zach Vigil could get the start in his place at linebacker for the Dolphins.
King Dunlap – Remains hobbled with an ankle injury and all indications are he is out for Sunday. Chris Hairston, despite being bothered with an abdominal injury, was practicing and would start in place of Dunlap at left tackle.
KEY MISMATCH
When the Dolphins fired offensive coordinator Bill Lazor a few weeks ago, the team wanted to establish more of a presence in the run game. They have a horse in the backfield in Lamar Miller, who needs just 231 yards to become the team’s first back-to-back 1,000-yard rusher in a dozen years. Miami would like to get the ball to Miller on a more regular basis and against San Diego’s 27th-ranked run defense that seems like a strong possibility. In his three 100-yard games this season, Miller averaged almost 18 carries and the Dolphins were victorious each time. Overall, he averages just 13.7 rush attempts per game. Miami has strayed from the run game when it falls behind, so a big key for Miller’s numbers and the Dolphins is to get an early lead and keep it.
KEY STAT
19.2 – San Diego’s 28th-ranked scoring offense. The Chargers have managed just a field goal in three of their past four games and face a Dolphins defense that ranks 26th in points per game allowed.
BETTING ANGLE
It’s not the most attractive matchup of the weekend with both teams officially eliminated from the playoff picture, though the “official” part was just a formality. The Dolphins got the boot last week while San Diego has been out of the running for some time. But there is still plenty of betting value to be found in the contest. Miami has historically enjoyed facing San Diego going 9-2 SU in their last 11 against the Bolts. Neither side has been particularly great at the betting window this NFL season. The Dolphins have covered the spread just once in the past seven games and are 4-9 ATS overall, while San Diego is 5-8 ATS. The Chargers have scored just three points on three different occasions in their last four games, which has been a boost for under bettors. The under is 8-5 overall in Chargers’ games.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
The Chargers banged up and depleted offensive line faces another challenge in Miami’s Ndamukong Suh. San Diego just hasn’t been able to patch a group together that can consistently open holes for the running game and protect quarterback Philip Rivers. The results have been disastrous. Three points in three of the last four games isn’t going to get it done. The Dolphins have been a bit better and have a nice rushing attack behind Miller. Watch for Miami to control the line on offense with Miller getting a bunch of carries. Motivation is lacking for both sides now without much to play for but pride. But the Dolphins have said getting Miller to 1,000 yards rushing on the season is a priority. With the playoffs out of the picture, that should be enough to carry the Dolphins to road win and cover.
Miami 22, San Diego 16
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