Good teams beat bad or mediocre teams, which is exactly what the Jets have done during their first three-game winning streak since 2011. New York must do it again Saturday against the struggling Dallas Cowboys to keep their playoff hopes alive in the congested AFC.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Dallas Cowboys +2.5
New York Jets -2.5
Over/Under 43
ODDS ANALYSIS
The line was already wagered a half-point to New York -3 and could go higher given the state of the Cowboys. They are just 1-8 SU and 2-7 ATS in games started by a backup quarterback and it doesn’t look like they are getting better. The Jets will play their first game away from home in a month and are 3-0 both SU and ATS in their last three.
KEY INJURIES
Devin Smith – Was carted off the field with a potentially serious right knee injury. The Jets’ backup receiver and special teams performer was injured covering a punt in the third quarter.
Jeremy Kerley – New York’s punt returner was in and out of the game Sunday but failed to finish for the second week in a row due to a calf injury. Receiver Eric Decker is the only other player to return a punt for the Jets this season.
Rolando McClain – Entered the protocol for concussions following Sunday’s loss to Green Bay after getting accidentally kicked in the head by a teammate. He was initially cleared on the sideline and returned to the game only to have symptoms worsen afterwards. Anthony Hitchens is a leading candidate to replace him at linebacker.
KEY MISMATCH
In an attempt to stop Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay’s passing game last week, the Cowboys stuck with their big nickel defense, which includes three safeties, for a good portion of the game. The strategy backfired and they were trampled by Eddie Lacy, who ran for 124 yards on 24 carries. Dallas allowed a season-high 233 rushing yards to the Packers. The Jets have a multi-dimensional offensive attack and their O-line was strong against a solid Tennessee front last week. Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick was pressured on only four of his 39 dropbacks and threw for 263 yards and three touchdowns. Chris Ivory also had a strong game rushing for 101 yards behind strong perimeter blocking. He ran for 59 yards outside the tackles, his highest total in the last two years. Dallas’ defense would benefit from sustained drives by the offense. The group was worn down in the second half last week and was on the field for nearly 38 minutes while defending 81 plays.
KEY STAT
44.4 – Dallas’ red zone touchdown percentage. The Cowboys are 29th in the NFL and go up against New York’s No. 1 ranked defense in red zone touchdown efficiency.
BETTING ANGLE
The Jets showed their maturity, demonstrating the sense of urgency needed to make a serious playoff push. Before their rout of the Titans on Sunday, the Jets insisted there was no reason to be concerned about a letdown against an inferior opponent, and they were right. New York dominated and enjoyed a rare laugher, winning 30-8 for their first three-game winning streak since December 2011. The Jets have the ingredients for a playoff run. They have a hot quarterback and a hotter defense, which played its best game in weeks. The Jets have doubled their win total from last season and, more importantly, they remain in prime position for an AFC wild card. They also look like a team that is peaking at the right time. The Cowboys are finished in the NFC East after falling to 1-8 without Tony Romo starting at quarterback.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
The Cowboys nightmarish season continued and soon it will all be over. They’ve proven all season that without Romo, they just can’t produce enough points to win games. Matt Cassel did nothing to help his case for a possible to return to Big D next season by once again floundering and wasting a solid effort from the defense. In his last three starts the Boys have scored two touchdowns and 32 points. The Jets will play their first game away from MetLife Stadium in a month when they travel to Dallas. They’ve lost their last three real road games going 0-2-1 ATS in that span. They did beat the Giants in a “road” game two weeks ago, but the teams share the same home field. This looks like a different team than the one that lost at Houston a month ago and with their first trip to the postseason within reach, don’t expect Fitzpatrick and Brandon Marshall to let this one slip away.
New York 26, Dallas 16
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