New England has been challenged with injuries all season, particularly on offense, and was bit again last week when their leading rusher went down.
But as long as quarterback Tom Brady remains on the field, they are likely to keep winning.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
New England Patriots -14
Tennessee Titans +14
Over/Under 46.5
ODDS ANALYSIS
New England has been a double-digit favorite twice this season and clobbered their opponent both times for easy covers. It’s tempting to lean on the dog when given two touchdowns, but the Pats have proven that isn’t an obstacle. Despite their injury concerns, the Patriots still look like a good bet.
KEY INJURIES
Dexter McCluster – Just returned after missing two games with a sprained MCL and suffered a broken wrist in last week’s loss to the Jets. The Titans will go with Bishop Sankey as a third-down back with Antonio Andrews and David Cobb getting extra snaps.
Derrick Morgan – Was put on injured reserve after failing to fully recover from a shoulder injury. Tennessee will turn to David Bass at outside linebacker.
LeGarrette Blount – Is done for the year after suffering a hip injury in last week’s win over Houston. The injury bug caught up with New England’s stable of running backs, leaving Brandon Bolden and James White as the only healthy ones on the roster.
KEY MISMATCH
Although the Titans defense is statistically better against the pass than the run, New England’s lack of depth and talent at running back means Brady will be expected shoulder the offense. Getting Rob Gronkowski back in the lineup last week makes the job easier, as does the evolving role for White. Expect plenty of personnel packages from the Pats, especially with White and Bolden splitting time in a backfield without depth. The most important aspect of the game plan, which will remain focused on quick throws to banged-up Danny Amendola and Brandon LaFell, is that the offensive line improve the pass protection. Brady has been sacked three or more times in four of the last five games and hit far too often. The front needs to win more one-on-one battles against a Titans front that has 35 sacks. If that happens, Brady should find openings against a team that has allowed a combined 102 passer rating on the season and has give up 30-plus points in consecutive games.
KEY STAT
-9 – Tennessee’s turnover differential. The Titans have turned the ball over 25 times and are 29th in margin. New England is seventh in turnover differential with a plus-5 margin.
BETTING ANGLE
It’s extremely rare that the New England Patriots drop three in a row, and Tom Brady and Co. prevented that from happening last week, ending a two-game slide with a 27-6 romp over the Texans. New England could have an easier time staying ahead of the pack in the AFC race with the Titans coming to town. The pats opened as hefty 14-point chalk thanks to their sparkling play at home. New England is a sizzling 24-2 SU in their last 26 games at Gillette Stadium and 5-1 ATS in their last six games against AFC South opponents.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
As long as the Patriots’ quarterback doesn’t go down with an injury the club will be just fine. Brady will have to work with new running backs after losing leading rusher Blount to a hip injury. Dion Lewis, who remains second on the team in rushing despite going on injured reserve last month, is also out. The Pats brought in Montee Ball to the practice squad and worked out Steven Jackson with hopes of deepening the position. The passing game should be in order with Gronk and Amendola back in the fold after they also dealt with injuries. As long as the line gives Brady a bit of time, he’ll find his guys up and down the field. New England’s injury-riddled roster gets a tiny break facing the Titans, who tip-toed through last week’s 30-8 romp by the Jets. Another performance like that and the outcome is much worse. The line is large, but New England is 2-0 ATS as double-digit favorites this football season with both coming at home. It’s tough to go against Brady and Belichick.
New England 34, Tennessee 16
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