In what amounts to a playoff game for both sides, the Cincinnati and Denver will showcase their teams on Monday Night Football minus their star attractions – a starting quarterback. The Bengals can not only clinch the AFC North with a win, but also secure a bye into the division round, and it’s only fitting they do it on the road, where they are 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Denver Broncos -3.5
Cincinnati Bengals +3.5
Over/Under 40.5
ODDS ANALYSIS
Cincinnati’s unblemished road record led to the line being wagered to Denver -3. The Bengals are a perfect 7-0 ATS away from home and a fancy 11-2-1 ATS overall. They’ve been an underdog twice this season, covering both times and winning SU once. The total held steady at 40.5.
KEY INJURIES
Tyler Eifert – Cincinnati’s Pro-Bowl tight end remains in concussion protocol and may miss Monday’s game. He was injured two weeks ago and sat out last Sunday’s win over San Francisco. Tyler Kroft got the start in his place.
David Bruton – Denver’s veteran safety played most of last week’s game with a broken leg. The severity of the injury wasn’t revealed until after the contest and he was put on injured reserve Tuesday. Though he is a backup, Bruton gave the team a veteran presence at the banged up position and is a special teams standout.
KEY MISMATCH
In some ways the Bengals and Broncos are identical twins: they are blessed with attacking defenses that are among the league’s best pass-rushing units, and young quarterbacks that are being asked to avoid mistakes while they learn on the job after promotions because of injury. But the key to the game may rest in whether the Broncos ground game can find the form it has shown in flashes over the last few weeks. It disappeared in the second half last week as the Broncos found themselves in long-yardage situation as mistakes mounted and their 17-point lead evaporated. Both defenses will also try and force the young passers into mistakes and whichever team is successful in the turnover battle will likely be the victor.
KEY STAT
38.0 – Cincinnati’s quarterback sack total. The Bengals are sixth in the NFL in sacks and go up against a Denver offensive line that has allowed 34 sacks, the 12th-highest total in the league.
BETTING ANGLE
What the Broncos desperately need is for Brock Osweiler and the offense to be more like their first-half selves than what they’ve been in the second half. In each of the last two games, Denver scored four times before halftime, racking up a 39-13 first-half advantage in those games. That’s all been wiped out by going scoreless after halftime and being outscored 36-0. In fact, the Broncos haven’t scored in the second half since their comeback win over New England on Nov. 29. Cincinnati held on for the win and cover against the lowly 49ers last week and is now an impressive 11-2-1 ATS. Even more remarkable is their flawless 7-0 ATS road record.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
The Broncos have lost consecutive games and it appears there could be a quarterback controversy in Denver – and right in time for the playoffs. Coach Gary Kubiak might even consider bringing in Payton Manning for the second half because Osweiler is a completely different player after halftime. His quarterback rating plummets 44 points and his completion percentage drops 23.3 points over the final two quarters. And the consequences if the Broncos fail to halt their slide are dire. If the Steelers, Jets and Chiefs all win out, one Broncos loss in their next two games would make them the third 11-5 team in NFL history to miss the playoffs. It’s hard to imagine a defense as strong as Denver’s having another meltdown like it did last week in Pittsburgh. Facing a backup quarterback making his second career start should help. Look for the Broncos to get back in the win column with a close, low scoring victory.
Denver 17, Cincinnati 15
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