It’s lining up to be a tight finish in the AFC and the Chiefs are right in the middle of the scrum. How tight, you ask? Well, Kansas City currently has the inside track on the first wild card spot. The Chiefs are also within striking distance of the AFC West title, but a stumble can have them outside the playoff picture. A game against the moribund Browns is one they need to have.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Kansas City Chiefs -13
Cleveland Browns +13
Over/Under 44
ODDS ANALYSIS
Cleveland failed to cover as 14.5-point dogs in Seattle last Sunday and is 0-2 ATS this season when getting double-digit points. It’s been a tough stretch for the Browns, who are just 1-7 SU and ATS over their past eight. The line was wagered to Kansas City -12.5 with the total falling to 43.
KEY INJURIES
John Greco – The Browns lost their starting right guard to a knee injury after he got rolled on in a pileup in the first quarter of Sunday’s loss. Cam Erving, who had been benched after struggling at left guard, took over.
Justin Houston – The pass-rushing linebacker won’t play for the Chiefs in the final two games of the regular season because of a hyperextended knee. The team is optimistic he will be cleared to return for the playoffs, assuming the Chiefs make it that far. Dee Ford has lessened the blow of Houston’s absence by playing outstanding football.
KEY MISMATCH
The Chiefs were once again stellar in protecting the football. This has been a common theme over their eight-game winning streak. Kansas City entered Sunday’s game second in the NFL with a plus-12 turnover margin and had three takeaways against Baltimore while not giving the ball away once. Capitalizing on those mistakes was the difference in the Chiefs’ 34-14 victory. Safety Tyvon Branch picked up a fumble and ran 73 yards for a touchdown in the first quarter. Cornerback Marcus Peters also returned an interception 90 yards for a touchdown. The Chiefs’ defense prides itself in changing the momentum of the game with a big play and has come up large in their current run. “We just go out there, play hard and make plays,” Branch said.
KEY STAT
+15 – Kansas City’s turnover margin. The Chiefs are second in the NFL in differential and face a Cleveland team that ranks 28th in the league with a minus-8 turnover margin.
BETTING ANGLE
Believe it or not, the Browns are trying to win these final games of the season, but the most important thing they must do is evaluate quarterback Johnny Manziel. Even with a high draft pick coming, the Browns simply have to know which direction they should take with the most important position on the team. Manziel did some good things Sunday, opening the game with an impressive touchdown drive, but then his team scored just six points the rest of the way. Manziel beat two teams with a combined seven wins as a starter and produced 10, 9 and 13 points against three good teams. Even in a game in which it felt like he was playing well, Manziel threw for only 161 yards. He also fumbled and threw an interception on the Browns’ final possession.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
It’s been quite a turnaround for the Chiefs, becoming the only team to follow a five-game losing streak with eight straight wins in the same season. And they’ve been nearly flawless during their winning streak with an offense that is managed by quarterback Alex Smith and a defense that makes opponents pay for its mistakes. One thing you can count on from the Browns is mistakes. Be it turnovers, blown assignments, dropped passes or the inability to tackle people on defense, Cleveland does it all, and usually in the same game. The Browns have surrendered at least 30 points in six of their past seven games – the only time they didn’t was against the offensively-challenged 49ers – and seemingly have no answers on defense. The Chiefs aren’t an offensive juggernaut, but they frustrate the heck out of their opponent with a solid running game and safe passes from Smith. Cleveland faces another double-digit spread, but this time covers against a less than prolific Chiefs offense.
Kansas City 27, Cleveland 17
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