NFC powerhouses collide with plenty at stake when the Cardinals host the Packers on Sunday. Arizona’s ninth straight win would wrap up a first-round playoff bye, but the Cards haven’t been overpowering at home, going 0-4 ATS in their last four at University of Phoenix Stadium, with their last two wins by three points each.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Arizona Cardinals -4.5
Green Bay Packers +4.5
Over/Under 49.5
ODDS ANALYSIS
Green Bay appears to be rolling at the right time, going 3-0 SU and ATS in its last three with two of those wins coming on the road. The Packers haven’t been underdogs often in recent years, but when they have been, they haven’t responded well, going 2-12 SU and 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 as underdogs.
KEY INJURIES
Brett Goode – Green Bay’s long-snapper was felled by a torn ACL last week in Oakland and is done for the season. The team signed rookie Rick Lovato to handle the chores this week in Arizona.
Sam Shields – Has yet to clear the concussion protocol and is in danger of missing his second straight game. If he can’t play, the Pakcers will use a pair of rookie cornerbacks in Damarious Randall and Quinten Rollins.
Tyrann Mathieu – Tore his ACL in last week’s game and is out for the remainder of the year. The Cardinals placed their starting safety on injured reserve and re-signed Chris Clemons, who was with the team for the first month before being released with an injury settlement.
KEY MISMATCH
It appeared the Cardinals would be scrambling at running back this season with Andre Ellington hampered by turf toe, but Chris Johnson stepped up and was selected as an alternate for the Pro Bowl. Then Johnson fractured his tibia in late November, leaving the job to David Johnson, a third-round pick out of Northern Iowa. He’s averaging 5.4 yards per carry in his three starts and rushed for 187 yards and three touchdowns in last week’s win over Philadelphia that gave the Cards the NFC West title. Johnson’s emergence has helped keep Arizona on track despite the injuries. The Cards have won eight straight and can clinch the NFC’s second seed with a win. The Packers are 26th in the league in average yards allowed per rush and have given up at least 100 yards on the ground in four straight. Having Johnson playing well to complement quarterback Carson Palmer, has given coach Bruce Arians the freedom to run his offense as he’d like. Johnson and the rest of the Cardinals weapons have them ranked No. 1 in the NFL in total offense with an average of 422.9 yards per game.
KEY STAT
31.8 – Arizona’s points per game. The Cards’ second-ranked scoring offense faces a Green Bay defense that allows 18.9 points per game.
BETTING ANGLE
It ain’t easy to win in the NFL. The expectations surrounding the Packers are much higher than most teams in the league. They have, after all, enjoyed plenty of success while establishing a new norm in Titletown. But the bottom line is winning and coach Mike McCarthy had to remind his team of that after several players were upset over a 10-point victory in Oakland. The coach’s message was received by Aaron Rodgers, who acknowledged that his team still has a chance to reach all of its goals this season, including a berth in Super Bowl 50. Of course the Packers can help their chances at that with a victory over the Cardinals. A win would keep Green Bay’s hopes for the No. 2 playoff seed alive entering the final weekend of the regular season.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
The loss of the Honey Badger in Arizona’s secondary is a big blow to the seventh-ranked defense, but unlike last season, when injuries to the top two quarterbacks all but ended what could’ve been a successful playoff run, the Cards are deep in that spot. And once again they’re playing a game with significant stakes. A win clinches the No. 2 seed and a first-round bye. The Packers also need a win to possibly wrap up the NFC North. Both teams will bring their A-game, but Arizona is on a roll with eight straight wins and has the homefield advantage, which means plenty to them. Green Bay hasn’t been as explosive offensively and it’s hard to see the Packers keeping up in a shootout.
Arizona 31, Green Bay 26
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