New York coach Todd Bowles said his team will need some help from the football gods to make the playoffs. The Jets must first defeat the quarterback God in what amounts to a must-win game to have any chance of reaching the postseason. During Tom Brady’s tenure the Patriots have won 23 of 30 games against the Jets, making the task more difficult.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
New York Jets +3
New England Patriots -3
Over/Under 46.5
ODDS ANALYSIS
In five games since the Jets’ infamous Butt Fumble in 2012, the margin of victory has been no more than seven points. Unfortunately, New York lost four of those games, including a Week 7 defeat. The total has gone over 10 times in the last 12 meetings and dropped a half-point to 46. The Pats continue to produce, even with their beat up roster, giving the over value.
KEY INJURIES
Danny Amendola – Aggravated a left knee injury last weekend and will likely sit out this week. Reports say he will not miss any playoff time, but will likely rest up before the postseason begins. The initial injury occurred in Week 11 forcing Amendola to miss the following week.
Dont’a Hightower – Hobbled off the field Sunday with a knee injury and did not return, forcing the Patriots to elevate Jerod Mayo and Darius Fleming up the depth chart at linebacker. Hightower is questionable to play against the Jets.
David Harris – Left last week’s game in the first quarter with a back injury and is questionable to play on Sunday. Coach Todd Bowles said the Jets defense couldn’t function without their starting linebacker and the team was gashed on the ground by the Cowboys. Erin Henderson was the replacement.
KEY MISMATCH
With departures and injuries opening a spot in the Patriots backfield, James White has seized the opportunity. Coach Bill Belichick saw the growth in White as a player during training camp and preseason. He also saw a young player eager for a chance, but also learning while he wasn’t getting that chance. White has embraced the role of passing back, quickly becoming a favorite target of Tom Brady out of the backfield with 21 catches in the past three games. He took a screen pass 30 yards for a touchdown, one of his seven catches in Sunday’s win over Tennessee. He also had a 70-yard catch and run wiped out by a penalty. White has run the ball only 17 times, gaining 47 yards with two touchdowns. But he’s caught 33 passes for 319 yards and three scores. His emergence has softened the blow of losing Dion Lewis, who was the back balancing the passing game out of the backfield until his knee injury several weeks ago.
KEY STAT
47.0 – New England’s quarterback sacks. The Patriots are tied for the NFL lead in sacks and will attempt to penetrate New York’s line that has allowed the second-fewest sacks.
BETTING ANGLE
The Jets, winners of four straight for the first time since 2010, look to erase a tortured past against their division rivals. For 15 years, they’ve been pushed around by the Patriots. In the Tom Brady era, the Jets are 7-23 against them, including the postseason. Other than one moment of glory and a few feel-good wins that tricked people into believing they were closing the gap, it’s been pure frustration for the Jets. Sunday means everything to the Jets, who need two wins and some help to secure a wild card berth. An 11-5 record, coupled with one loss by Kansas City or Pittsburgh or Denver, would get them into the playoffs. The Pats have already clinched a first-round bye, but they need one win to claim home-field advantage. The games are usually close. The seven-point margin in New England’s Week 7 victory was the largest in the past five games.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
At least the Jets are healthier than the Patriots entering their Sunday showdown. If that amounts to a win remains to be seen. New England players keep going down and the team just reloads with free agents or practice squad call ups that look like they’ve been part of the organization for years. Last week it was Joey Iosefa, elevated from the practice squad on Saturday, he had game-highs of 14 carries for 51 yards against the Titans on Sunday. The team penned former Rams running back Steven Jackson this week and he’ll likely bust out for 100 yards since he’s well-rested. As long as the Patriots have Brady under center, you can’t count them out of any game. He will be limited once again in the passing game with Amendola out, though, and that’s a blow. The Jets are playing for their playoff lives and the Pats are more concerned about who will dress for the postseason. Look for the Jets to pull off the upset and stay alive for another week.
New York 27, New England 23
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