The 49ers are visiting Detroit at the wrong time. Of course, for the Niners, there hasn’t been a good time to visit anybody. San Francisco is 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS on the road this season, and all but one of those games were blowouts. That included a 14-point loss at Cleveland – that’s right, Cleveland.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Detroit Lions -7.5
San Francisco 49ers +7.5
Over/Under 43
ODDS ANALYSIS
History is not on Detroit’s side having lost nine straight and 14 of 15 in the series. But that streak will soon be history. The line took a huge two-point swing, wagered to Detroit -9.5. The Niners have played every game this season as an underdog and this is the second-largest spread. They failed to cover when spotted 14 points by Seattle in Week 11 and are 6-8 ATS overall.
KEY INJURIES
Shaun Draughn – Picked up off the scrap heap a few weeks back to add depth to the Niners backfield, he suffered a knee injury last week and is doubtful to play against the Lions. With Carlos Hyde, Reggie Bush and Mike Davis on injured reserve, Kendall Gaskins and newcomer DuJuan Harris are the only healthy running backs on the roster.
Glover Quin – Entered the league’s concussion protocol after taking a knee to the helmet in Monday night’s victory over New Orleans and it’s unlikely he’ll be cleared in time to suit up against the Niners. James Ihedigbo is in line to play more snaps at safety.
KEY MISMATCH
San Francisco’s defense is bad. It’s been worse on the road this season and waiting for them Sunday is one of the hottest quarterbacks in the NFL. Matthew Stafford is coming off a Lions record 88.0 completion percentage on Monday night with a 22 of 25 passing display against the Saints. In early November, the Lions were 1-7 and a report about Stafford’s future with the club being “very much in doubt” surfaced. But in the past six games – and with the appointment of Jim Bob Cooter as offensive coordinator – Stafford has generated a 106.9 passer rating. Now, there’s no talk about Stafford’s future. During the early part of the season the Lions had some problems on the offensive line and the run game was non-existent. That combination makes it tough on any quarterback. Detroit has improved in those areas and so has Stafford’s numbers. Two weeks ago he became the fastest player in NFL history to reach 25,000 passing yards, reaching that level in two fewer games than Dan Marino.
KEY STAT
25.9 – Detroit’s points per game allowed. The Lions’ 28th ranked scoring defense will go against a Niners club that is last in the NFL with just 14.4 points per game.
BETTING ANGLE
Several thousand 49ers fans have stayed away from the team’s home games recently. They are also a good team to completely stay away from at the betting window – especially when on the road. The Niners have gone 1-8 SU and 2-7 ATS in their last nine games away from home, and as for playing in December, things are even worse as they’ve gone 4-13 ATS in the last 17 December road games. San Francisco visits Ford Field to play a Lions team trending in the wrong direction, posting a 2-6 ATS record in their last eight home games. Detroit hasn’t responded well to being a favorite in recent years, going 1-3 ATS in their last 14 games as the favored team in December games.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
Like every team in the league, the Niners have had to deal with their share of injuries this season. But the bottom line is that they are not a very good football team, no matter who’s playing. The Blaine Gabbert experience has yielded very little in terms of offensive output, though the Niners have reached double-figures in points in every game since he took over. Still, little consolation since the most points scored in regulation time over that span is 17. They were booed off the field at halftime last week after falling behind Cincinnati 21-0, and though they actually got within 10 points and had the ball in the fourth quarter, it never felt like they had a chance. That’s how things have gone for them this year. At least the Lions are competitive, posting wins in four of six games since their bye with the two losses by a combined 11 points. They never trailed against Green Bay until a Hail Mary toss put them behind at the final gun.
Detroit 30, San Francisco 13
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