There is still a chance the Bengals can get a first-round bye in the playoffs, but things got much more complicated with their overtime loss in Denver Monday night. The Ravens are feeling good about their chances of upsetting a division rival for the second straight week, but there shouldn’t be any doubt these Bengals at home can shut up a Ryan Mallet-led offense.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Cincinnati Bengals -9.5
Baltimore Ravens +9.5
Over/Under 41.5
ODDS ANALYSIS
Baltimore pulled off a huge upset last week, beating NFC North rival Pittsburgh outright as an 11-point dog and face another division rival as a considerable pup. The line was wagered to Cincinnati -9. Overall, however, Baltimore has been one of the worst bets in the NFL this season going 4-9-2 ATS. The Bengals are one of the best wagers in the league, sporting a 12-2-1 ATS record. The total held at 41.5.
KEY INJURIES
Matt Schaub – Is still banged up and the Ravens have named Ryan Mallet their starting quarterback for Sunday. Either Schaub or Jimmy Clausen, will serve as the backup.
A.J. McCarron – Cincinnati’s backup turned starting quarterback suffered a sprained left wrist on the final play of Monday night’s overtime loss. The injury isn’t expected to sideline him, but he could have difficulty holding onto the football. Keith Wenning will be the backup.
Ryan Hewitt – The tight end/fullback injured his knee Monday night and was held out of practice on Wednesday. He is questionable to play against the Ravens. Tyler Eifert was cleared from the concussion protocol after missing the last two games and expects to play on Sunday, lessening the blow of Hewitt’s injury.
KEY MISMATCH
With Dalton out and McCarron nursing a sprained wrist on his non-throwing hand, it would a good time for the Bengals’ running game to come alive. Cincinnati showed flashes of a strong ground game in the first half against the Broncos. The numbers weren’t pretty, not with Jeremy Hill finishing with 19 carries for 63 yards and Giovanni Bernard eight for 14, but what the backs did do against an elite defense was keep the offense in third-and-short situations, helping the team to rack up 15 chain-moving plays on a little more than 30 plays overall. If the Bengals are intent on trotting out McCarron, which it should be with the lottery-type odds suggesting they can still secure a first-round bye, offensive coordinator Hue Jackson needs to keep the chances he takes a hit minimal. In short, the passes need to be quick-hitting, like they were in the first half Monday, and the runs need to be effective, unpredictable and make sense, like the first half Monday. Baltimore hasn’t been anything special in recent weeks against the run and is certainly exploitable on the ground.
KEY STAT
17.5 – Cincinnati’s points per game allowed. The Bengals lead the league in scoring defense and face Baltimore’s offense that ranks 23rd in scoring and is working with its fourth quarterback.
BETTING ANGLE
Baltimore did its division rivals a solid last week, knocking off Pittsburgh to clinch the AFC North for Cincinnati. But the Bengals need to avoid the same upset fate if they’re to have hope of getting next week off and giving Andy Dalton’s thumb more time to heal. The Bengals held a two-touchdown lead over the team they’re competing with for a bye through the wild-card round and let it slip away. They now need their injured backup to guide them to a home victory, and for Denver to lose at home to four-win San Diego for that bye to become reality. The bye is particularly relevant to the AFC North champions with Dalton not expected to return for a potential wild card date next weekend. Doing their part would at least give Cincy its first 12-win season since 1988, the last time the club reached the Super Bowl.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
The Ravens took a bunch of frustration over a dismal season out on Pittsburgh last week, crippling the Steelers’ chances of making the playoffs. In their own little playoff run, the Ravens are trying to make life miserable on their division foes. Cincinnati needs to win and hope the Broncos lose to San Diego to secure a bye through the wild-card round of the playoffs. An unlikely scenario, but like we saw last week anything can happen. And after witnessing Baltimore’s upset of the Steelers, you can bet the Bengals took note and won’t let that happen. Cincy will get back to its identity of a run-oriented football team and use the tandem of Hill and Bernard with a little Muhammad Sanu tossed in. McCarron has no problem with the wrist on his throwing hand and will have another weapon in Eifert back in the passing game. The D will shut Baltimore down and McCarron will direct a few long scoring drives, taking the will out of the Ravens.
Cincinnati 31, Baltimore 18
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Click here and start wagering today! The matchup between the Baltimore Ravens and Cincinnati Bengals will take place Sunday, January 3, 2016, at 1 p.m. ET at Paul Brown Stadium. The matchup will be televised live on FOX.
