Oh my, it’s the battle for third place in the NFC North when the Lions visit the Bears in the regular season finale. Chicago offensive coordinator Adam Gase has been mentioned in a few reports to be a candidate for Detroit’s head coaching job. He could be auditioning against current coach Jim Caldwell, trying to break the Bears five-game skid against their division rival.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Chicago Bears -1.5
Detroit Lions +1.5
Over/Under 46.5
ODDS ANALYSIS
The line was wagered to Chicago -1 and that’s not good news for the Bears, who are 0-2 SU and ATS when laying points. Ironically those games were the last two times the Bears played at Soldier Field. The total fell a half-point to 46.
KEY INJURIES
Eddie Goldman – Chicago’s rookie nose tackle injured his ankle last weekend and is likely out for the finale. He’s played the second-most defensive snaps on the team and would probably give way to Bruce Gaston.
Jarvis Jenkins – Also suffered an ankle injury against Tampa Bay but was able to return to the game after getting treatment. He was in a walking boot afterwards and is listed as day-to-day.
KEY MISMATCH
The Lions face an uncertain offseason, but with the jobs of coaches in jeopardy, quarterback Matthew Stafford made a pitch for the team to keep its offensive coordinator after what’s been one of the best stretches of his seven-year career. Stafford has consistently given credit to Jim Bob Cooter, who took over for Joe Lombardi in Week 8, and backed up his claim with exceptional play over the past two months. After a rough start during the Lions 1-7 first half, Stafford has been stellar. In the last seven games he has a 108.7 passer rating, a 16-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio and is completing 69.7 percent of his passes. His hot hand continued last week in a thrashing of San Francisco, finishing with 301 yards and two touchdowns while completing 78.4 percent of his throws. Stafford spread the ball to eight different receivers, including Calvin Johnson, who had a game-high 77 yards on six receptions. But Stafford is the guy whose play dictates how the Lions perform, and as he’s excelled recently, Detroit has won five of seven games.
KEY STAT
-9 – Detroit’s turnover margin. The Lions have turned the ball over 24 times and are 29th in the league in differential. Chicago has 17 takeaways and is minus-1 in turnover margin.
BETTING ANGLE
We could call this the third place game in the NFC North with both teams at 6-9 coming in, so there is that to play for. Otherwise, not much. The Lions have had the upperhand in the series lately, winning five straight games, including a wild 37-34 overtime win in Week 6 that gave Detroit its first win of the season after opening with five consecutive losses. Chicago petitioned for this game to be moved out of Soldier Field because the Bears have been awful in their own yard, going 1-9 SU in their last 10, including a 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS record this season. The Bears have had difficulty within the division as well, posting a 6-14 ATS record in their last 20 against NFC North rivals. They ended a three-game losing streak by knocking off Tampa Bay last weekend and will finish with a better record than last season, which isn’t saying much. But progress has been made and for the team to truly end the year on a high note, the Bears have to beat Detroit at home.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
This game sets up to be a real good matchup between two evenly-matched clubs. While there are no playoff ramifications involved in the outcome, staying out of the cellar in the NFC North is a huge deal and the loser will occupy that spot until the next season begins. The Lions are riding the scorching hand of Stafford to win five of their last seven games while Caldwell makes a bid to keep his job. The Bears have just one more victory than last season, but the feeling is that they are on the rise under John Fox, who has done a nice job changing the culture at Halas Hall. If not for their poor home record, Chicago would be battling for a playoff spot in the NFC and possibly the division title. But they aren’t. Instead the Bears will try to get their second win of the season at Soldier Field, and first in three months, to get everyone excited about next season. Stafford riddled Chicago in the earlier meeting, but the Bears D makes a stand while the running back duo of Matt Forte and Jeremy Langford control the ground and the clock for a Chicago victory.
Chicago 24, Detroit 22
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