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It’s Houston that has emerged as the Brandon Weeden-led team based in Texas that is primed for a playoff bid. Weeden did his part last week, inching the Texans closer to the AFC South title and could be headed to the bench if Brian Hoyer is cleared. It won’t matter against a Jags defense that is regularly torched.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Houston Texans N/A
Jacksonville Jaguars N/A
Over/Under N/A
ODDS ANALYSIS
According to coach Bill O’Brien, Hoyer will get the start if he clears the concussion protocol, and he is in the final stages. He has yet to be cleared and the Texans have no official word on their quarterback situation, causing the line and total to remain off the board.
KEY INJURIES
Jeremy Parnell – Left the New Orleans game with a hamstring injury and did not return. The Jags’ starting right tackle was joined on the sideline by starting left tackle Luke Joeckel, who reported lower back pain and knee soreness after the game. Both players are listed as day-to-day.
Jadeveon Clowney – Injured his foot on Sunday and was taken out of the game. He didn’t return and was seen in a walking boot afterwards. He is listed as day-to-day with the injury and would be replaced by John Simon at outside linebacker.
Charles James – Houston’s special teams star and backup cornerback fractured his foot on Sunday and is heading for injured reserve.
KEY MISMATCH
Quarterbacks don’t even have to be completely healthy to torch the Jaguars defense. New Orleans’ Drew Brees did it on Sunday, playing on one foot. Brees threw for 412 yards and three touchdowns in a 38-27 Saints win. It didn’t seem to limit him, but the bottom line is that he wasn’t 100 percent and the Jaguars did nothing to take advantage of his injury. They didn’t get in his face to test his mobility. They rarely rushed more than five players and got burned by a screen pass when they did. They compounded the problem by not tackling well, either. Even when players were in position to make plays, they couldn’t get it done. It was, unfortunately, nothing new. The Jags have struggled against good – and sometimes mediocre – quarterbacks all season. They will not face Brees this Sunday, but whoever starts for the Texans, be it Weeden or Hoyer, will have two good wheels to work on. And that presents a problem for Jacksonville.
KEY STAT
46.2 – Jacksonville’s NFL-worst third down defense. The Jaguars take on Houston’s offense which ranks 18th in the league at extending drives.
BETTING ANGLE
Unlike the other Texas-based team, Houston has been able to overcome its quarterback issues and has a stranglehold on the AFC South title. Three years and 11 failed assignments later, Weeden returned to the winners circle as an NFL starting quarterback. He shrugged off a shaky first quarter-and-a-half on Sunday and led three touchdown drives in a 10-minute span bridging the halves as Houston routed Tennessee for its second straight win and sixth in the past eight games. Weeden became the fourth Houston starter to win a game this season and got his first since his 2012 rookie season. Give coach Bill O’Brien credit for guiding his team to the brink of a division title. Sure, the AFC South is awful, but the Texans have absorbed one major injury after another, started 2-5 and never wavered in their focus.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
If Jacksonville can get its defense figured out they will be a dangerous team. Offensively, the Jags are solid behind quarterback Blake Bortles and receivers Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns. Unfortunately, the D ranks near the bottom of the NFL in passing and points allowed. They could make a run at the Texans with their offensive playmakers, but they surrender too much on the defensive side. Houston is no juggernaut and managed a season-high point total in Sunday’s 34-6 win at Tennessee behind Weeden, who is likely to return to the backup role when Hoyer is cleared. Houston does have DeAndre Hopkins and he will get behind the defense for a few big plays to get the Texans the win.
Houston 27, Jacksonville 23
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