Following a six-game skid that took them out of playoff contention, the Falcons were closer to making history as the first team to start a season with five straight wins and finish below .500. That all changed with last week’s stunning upset of Carolina, and Atlanta now has a chance to end the season with three consecutive victories. The Saints are just 2-5 SU and 3-4 ATS on the road.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Atlanta Falcons -3.5
New Orleans Saints +3.5
Over/Under 52
ODDS ANALYSIS
Atlanta is looking to finish the season strong going 2-0 SU and ATS in its last two games. The Falcons have played below the final total in nine straight games and the under is 12-2-1 overall. The line was wagered to Atlanta -4 while the total jumped to 52.5.
KEY INJURIES
Marques Colston – Was inactive last week as he continues to recover from a chest injury. The Saints’ receiver has been a favorite target of Drew Brees over the years and is questionable to play in the finale. Willie Snead has done a fine job in his place.
Paul Soliai – Suffered a calf injury and was removed from the Panthers game. The Falcons nose tackle was put on injured reserve Tuesday, meaning he won’t play in the finale. Grady Jarrett emerged as the possible nose tackle of the future, but his status is uncertain due to a shoulder injury. Malliciah Goodman and Joey Mbu are likely to get snaps Sunday.
Eric Weems – Atlanta’s special teams leader and backup receiver was knocked out of last week’s game with an apparent concussion and is questionable to play Sunday.
KEY MISMATCH
The Matt Ryan-Julio Jones connection led the Falcons’ upset of the previously undefeated Panthers on Sunday and now has the team in position to post a winning record for the first time in three seasons, albeit in a non-playoff season for the third consecutive year. Ryan and Jones hooked up nine times for 178 yards, including a dazzling 70-yard touchdown play, to lift the Falcons to a 20-13 win. Atlanta can finish with a winning record by defeating the Saints. Ryan struggled during the team’s six-game losing streak, but delivered arguably his best performance of the season against the Panthers after taking several hard hits. He played through the discomfort to complete 23 of 30 passes for 309 yards and the scoring pass to Jones, who now has 127 catches for 1,722 yards and eight touchdowns. His play Sunday made us wonder why the Falcons haven’t just thrown it up to him more often, regardless of the coverage. That’s likely to happen against the Saints, who are 31st in passing and total defense, and have surrendered a NFL record 43 touchdown passes this season.
KEY STAT
30.6 – New Orleans’ points per game allowed. The Saints have the NFL’s worst scoring defense by a wide margin and faces Atlanta’s 14th-ranked scoring offense.
BETTING ANGLE
Saints running back Tim Hightower has found new life in the NFL after more than three years out of the league. And he insisted that he’s not taking a moment of it for granted. Hightower, who began his career with the Cardinals and Redskins from 2008-11, tore his ACL with Washington in 2011. He tried to come back the next summer but didn’t find out until a year later that an infection was affecting his recovery. He returned to the NFL when the Saints signed him this January. He didn’t make the team but returned after an injury to Khiry Robinson. Now, he’s emerged as the Saints’ leading man over the past three weeks, and plans to stay there.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
The Falcons showed some heart winning their last two games after a six-game slide wiped out all the excitement of a wonderful start. Atlanta stopped the Panthers’ run for perfection last week, posting a 20-13 win after getting whooped in Carolina just two games prior. Coach Dan Quinn was ecstatic over his team’s performance, particularly the defense. Being the former coordinator of Seattle’s vaunted D, you know he liked how the club finished that one off. The defense could be in for a long afternoon against Brees and the Saints offense, though. New Orleans has to put up plenty of points to win games because their defense is just awful, ranking last in points and next to last in pass, rush, and total yards allowed. Ryan will spend all afternoon looking for Jones and will hook up on a few big plays to get the Falcons a season-closing cover win.
Atlanta 34, New Orleans 27
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