The Chargers haven’t beaten an AFC West opponent in over a year, going 0-7 SU and 2-5 ATS since their last victory over a division rival. They’ll likely have to wait until next season to get another crack because the Broncos are staring at a division title with a win.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Denver Broncos -8
San Diego Chargers +8
Over/Under 41.5
ODDS ANALYSIS
San Diego has been a surprisingly good bet recently, going 4-1 ATS over its last five with three straight cover wins. The Chargers are even better on the road with five consecutive cover wins despite their 1-4 SU record. The line was wagered to Denver -9 while the total held at 41.5.
KEY INJURIES
Ladarius Green – Suffered an ankle injury last week against Oakland and was placed on injured reserve. He’s fifth on the team with 37 catches for 429 yards and four touchdowns. The Chargers added two tight ends, promoting Sean McGrath from the practice squad and claiming Asante Cleveland off waivers.
Eric Weddle – Likely saw his career as a Charger come to an end after going on injured reserve with a groin injury. The team promoted safety Matt Daniels from the practice squad.
Brandon Marshall – Limped off the field Monday night with a sprained ankle and didn’t return. His status for Sunday is questionable. Todd Davis replaced him against the Bengals and would see a bulk of the snaps Sunday if Marshall can’t go.
KEY MISMATCH
Nothing seems to bother Brock Osweiler. Not the constant Peyton Manning news or his leaky offensive line, dropped passes or missed field goals. Not a separated left shoulder, a bum left elbow or an infected left eye. Not even two-touchdown deficits. The comeback he engineered Monday night established the Broncos as the only team in NFL history ever to overcome 14-point deficits in one season against three playoff-bound teams. Two of those came on his watch. He led Denver back from a 14-point fourth quarter deficit against New England last month and helped the Broncos clinch a playoff berth Monday after falling behind 14-0. Osweiler is 4-2 as Denver’s starter and those two losses, against Oakland and Pittsburgh, easily could have been wins were it not for drops by Vernon Davis and Demaryius Thomas.
KEY STAT
49.0 – Denver’s quarterback sack total. The Broncos lead the NFL and face a patched up San Diego offensive line that ranks 12th in sacks allowed.
BETTING ANGLE
The Chargers close out the season at AFC West-leading Denver on Sunday, attempting to avoid going winless against division foes during a full season for the first since 1984. San Diego finished 7-9 that year but went 0-8 against division rivals. The Chargers actually have not had a win against an AFC West opponent in more than a year, dating back to a 13-6 home victory over the Raiders on Nov. 16, 2014. San Diego is 0-7 against division rivals since then. Whatever the Chargers do at the end of the year, getting back to respectability inside their division should be near the top of their to-do list.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
San Diego is the worst team in the league running the football and the Broncos are very good at stopping the ground game. That makes for a very long afternoon for Philip Rivers and the Chargers. With a few bullets missing from the chamber, San Diego just doesn’t have the firepower to overcome the Broncos defense, which leads the NFL in passing yards and total yards allowed, ranks second in rushing yards allowed and is fourth in scoring. The Broncos got back to their ball-hawking ways on Monday after surrendering two quick touchdowns and shut down Cincinnati to clinch a playoff spot. A month ago in San Diego, Osweiler was efficient and the defense was outstanding in a 17-3 win, holding the Chargers to 272 total yards and forcing three turnovers. San Diego has played a number of close games and covered both times they were double-digit dogs. Expect a similar outcome Sunday.
Denver 22, San Diego 16
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