Bears’ coach John Fox is winning the AFC West again. Fox captured four division titles in his four years as Denver’s coach and is 2-0 against the division this year. Chicago’s only two wins have come against Oakland and Kansas City. San Diego hasn’t been the most reliable team to wager on recently. The Chargers are 1-7 ATS when tabbed as chalk and they opened as a 4.5-point favorite against the Bears.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
San Diego Chargers -4.5
Chicago Bears +4.5
Over/Under 52
ODDS ANALYSIS
The total plunged 2.5 points when news broke of all the star offensive talent out for this game. Still, both teams have the ability and with generous defenses on both sides, the over looks like a smart play. Smarter now that the total is at 49.5.
KEY INJURIES
Matt Forte – Suffered a sprained right MCL and is expected to miss at least two weeks with Chicago. Jeremy Langford would be elevated to start at running back with Antone Smith and Ka’Deem Carey seeing time as backups.
Keenan Allen – San Diego’s top receiver was lost for the year with a lacerated kidney in last week’s loss at Baltimore. Dontrelle Inman is expected to take his starting spot.
King Dunlap – Missed practice this week with an ankle injury and is questionable to play on Sunday. San Diego’s offensive line has been ravaged by injuries with guard Orlando Franklin nursing a knee injury and D.J. Fluker in and out with a variety of ailments.
KEY MISMATCH
With no running game whatsoever, the Chargers will likely put the ball in the hands of quarterback Phillip Rivers to see if he can wear down the Bears through the air. Rivers averages 344 yards per game and has thrown eight touchdowns over his last three starts. And he’s on pace to set an NFL yardage record if his arm doesn’t fall off first. Chicago’s pass defense has surrendered 16 touchdowns and ranks fourth in yards allowed with 214.3 through the air, but that stat is misleading. The Bears are continually gashed on the ground, giving up 128 yards per game and there is no need for the opposition to throw the ball when gaining chunks at a time in the run game. Judging by his play so far, it wouldn’t be much of a surprise to see another 300-yard passing game from Rivers, which would make him just the seventh quarterback in NFL history to do so in six consecutive games.
KEY STAT
28.9 – Chicago’s points per game allowed to rank 29th in the NFL. San Diego averages 23.9 points overall and is scoring 28.0 points per game in its four home contests.
BETTING ANGLE
The losing has to stop at some point for San Diego, and the oddsmakers agree that this is the game when it does. BookMaker.eu opened with the Chargers favored by 4.5-points. San Diego’s only two wins have come at home, so playing at Qualcomm should give the Chargers a boost, provided the stadium isn’t overrun with Bears fans, which wouldn’t be all that surprising. Rivers noted after the Steelers game that it felt like a road contest given the Pittsburgh faithful in attendance. There was also a pro-Raiders crowd at Qualcomm when San Diego hosted Oakland two weeks ago. The Chargers lost both of those games. Despite the loss of Allen and the ridiculous number of injuries, a win for the Bolts would be comforting heading into the bye. However, Bears coach John Fox – previously with Denver – beat McCoy’s Chargers in four of the five games against his former assistant. Sure, that was with a better team, but Fox’s ability as a coach can’t be underestimated even with a struggling Bears squad.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
Both teams are beat up and just plodding along right now. San Diego had 12 players leave last week’s NFL game with injuries and several didn’t return. It’s a mystery who will be in the lineup Monday night. One guy we do know that’ll suit up is Rivers. And as long as he does, the Chargers have a chance. San Diego would like to get the run game going and might have a good chance against the 29th-ranked run defense. It would be huge for San Diego and back Melvin Gordon if the rookie could produce something other than fumbles. But the Chargers throw the ball as well as anyone, even with Allen out and a banged up O-line, expect Rivers to have a big game. Jay Cutler has put together a nice year for the Bears and with Alshon Jeffery finally healed, the two are deadly. San Diego has a leaky secondary and the Bears will exploit that, particularly with Forte out. I think we’re going to see a shootout in this one, but it’s the Chargers that have an extra round in the chamber for the cover win.
San Diego 31, Chicago 26
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