This could be the last time that Peyton Manning will face his former team when he leads the undefeated Broncos into Indy to battle the Colts. Indy knocked Denver out of the playoffs in January and won two of the three previous battles against Manning. The Broncos should not lose sight of the fact that the Colts are a dangerous team, even if their record doesn’t indicate that.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Indianapolis Colts +3
Denver Broncos -3
Over/Under 45
ODDS ANALYSIS
The Broncos minus the opening spread was favorable for many and the line saw movement to -5. Manning has looked sharp the past two games and facing his former team is always a storyline. But the Colts have beaten him twice in three meetings. The total hasn’t moved and over bettors need Indy to supply points to cash. That’s not likely to happen.
KEY INJURIES
Shane Ray – Denver’s reserve linebacker started two games in place of DeMarcus Ware when he was out injured, but suffered a sprained knee against Cleveland before the bye week. He likely needs a few more weeks to fully recover.
T.Y. Hilton – Reportedly sprained his left foot on Monday night and appears to be a long shot to play on Sunday. The Colts’ standout receiver missed practice this week and was in a walking boot. Donte Moncrief and Andre Johnson will be the top receivers with Griff Whalen likely the No. 3 guy.
KEY MISMATCH
Against Denver’s well-rounded defense teams have to fight for every yard. And the Colts will struggle with their offensive line woes and Hilton likely not playing. The Broncos rank at or near the top in nearly every major defensive statistical category and are coming off a game where they thoroughly frustrated Green Bay and Aaron Rodgers. The Broncos love to bring pressure off the edge with DeMarcus Ware and Von Miller, but this is a game where they could bring the heat on Colts’ quarterback Andrew Luck up the middle. Indy center Khaled Holmes and guard Hugh Thornton struggle mightily in pass protection, as evidenced by their rankings on Pro Football Focus. Holmes ranks at No. 32 out of 34 centers, and Thornton comes in at No. 71 out of 80 eligible guards. And this doesn’t bode well for Luck, as nose tackle Malik Jackson could be the guy who adds to Denver’s NFL-leading quarterback sack total. The Colts are also introducing a new offensive coordinator after firing Pep Hamilton this week.
KEY STAT
-9 – Indianapolis’ NFL-worst turnover margin. The Colts have turned the ball over 19 times and face a Broncos defense that has the second-most takeaways in the league with 17. Denver is plus-5 in turnover differential.
BETTING ANGLE
Manning’s return to Indianapolis could be a memorable one. Not only does he have a chance to beat his former team, Manning has a good shot of breaking a huge NFL record in the city where he spent the first 14 years of his career. The NFL schedule makers clearly knew what they were doing when they put the Broncos’ slate together. Manning needs 284 yards to surpass Brett Favre as the NFL’s all-time leader in passing yards. Unless he gets injured, there’s a 100 percent chance he will set the record, but it will be more interesting if he does it against the team he used to play for, in the city where he spent most of his career. The way Manning has played this season, getting the record isn’t a lock. In seven games this season, he’s thrown for 284 or more yards three times. However, two of those games came in the past two weeks, so he probably feels good about his chances. If Manning doesn’t get the record, he’ll be hoping this trip to Indy goes better than his last one. Back in 2013, the Colts beat the Broncos 39-33 in Manning’s only other trip to Indianapolis since signing with Denver.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
Another coaching shakeup in the NFL took place when the Colts fired Hamilton in favor of Chudzinski. I’m sure Hamilton didn’t forget how to coach overnight and Chud will have his work cut out for him to get Indy back to a functional level. Chudzinski’s experience as a college tight end might lead to more use of Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen. And that a quicker, shorter passing game reduces the number of penalties and turnovers that have plagued the offense. Manning had an outstanding game last week and temporarily silenced the critics that were predicting his demise. If he gets rolling, with the D the Broncos have, they could wrap up the AFC West by Thanksgiving. The one thing that could hurt Denver is a letdown from the big win over Green Bay, but the team’s focus is in place and that doesn’t happen.
Denver 24, Indianapolis 15
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