The Carolina Panthers emerged last week as the only unbeaten team in the NFC following Green Bay’s humbling loss at Denver. Carolina hasn’t been dominant, but they have been winners and enter this showdown between two of the NFC’s elite seeking its 12th consecutive regular season victory.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Carolina Panthers +1.5
Green Bay Packers -1.5
Over/Under 46
ODDS ANALYSIS
The Panthers haven’t made believers out of everyone just yet, opening as an underdog. Apparently the betting public is waiting for the shoe to drop with the line being wagered a point to Carolina +2.5. The Panthers are 5-2 ATS but just 2-2 ATS at home. The total saw a slight decline to 45.5.
KEY INJURIES
Sam Shields – Green Bay’s starting cornerback was knocked out of last week’s game at Denver with a shoulder injury and is questionable to play Sunday. Backup Quinten Rollins also suffered a shoulder injury and is questionable, leaving Micah Hyde and Damarious Randall in line to see more action.
Andrew Norwell – Strained his hamstring last week and did not practice during the week with his status questionable for Sunday. Amini Silatolu will likely get the nod at left guard in Norwell’s absence.
KEY MISMATCH
The Packers put up 38 points and won by 21 when these teams met last season. Carolina’s defense is different – in health, personnel and confidence. Tackle Kawann Short was fourth in the rotation last season and is playing at another level now, as is cornerback Josh Norman. They’ll look to continue the misery Aaron Rodgers and the Packers experienced at Denver last week. Accuracy between the hashes is vital for Rodgers. The Broncos blitzed inside gaps and dominated Green Bay’s offensive line, preventing Rodgers from stepping up or escaping the pocket. Working the ball to slot receiver Randall Cobb and tight end Richard Rodgers are escapes from harm’s way. The Packers, one of the league’s best offensive teams since Rodgers arrived, rank an uncharacteristic 27th in passing yards per game and 28th in total offense. While the Panthers defense isn’t built like the Broncos unit that smothered Green Bay last week, they have to pressure Rodgers and end Jared Allen, who’s familiar with the Packers from his days in the NFC North, is a key on the Panthers’ D-line.
KEY STAT
27.3 – Carolina’s points per game average. The Panthers are consistent, scoring in the 20s six times in seven games to rank fourth in the league. Green Bay is seventh in scoring defense at 18.6 points per game and surrendered a season-high 29 last week.
BETTING ANGLE
Carolina’s revenge tour rolls on. First, the Panthers finally knocked off nemesis Seattle. Then, they avenged last year’s embarrassing Monday Night Football loss to the Eagles. Now they get a crack at the Packers, who didn’t give the Panthers much of a chance last October. Green Bay led 21-0 after one quarter, and 38-3 after the third. Only four starters remain from the defense that began that game and they will be surrounded by a much better unit. Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers was stymied by the Broncos last week which adds to Carolina’s challenges. Last year’s MVP hasn’t lost back-to-back starts since 2010.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
At least the Packers won’t be facing a defense like the one Denver ran out last week. Green Bay was thwarted by the speed and power of the Broncos while Rodgers did absolutely nothing in a humbling loss. As alarming as the lack of offensive production was, so too is the failure of Green Bay’s defense to stop anyone. San Diego’s Philip Rivers threw for over 500 yards against it before the bye and the Broncos ran for 160 and amassed 500 total last week. The Pack needs to hunker down on D or Newton will have a big game against a fragile unit. While Carolina hasn’t been overwhelming opponents this season, the Panthers are winning. But their streak is about to end. Rodgers just doesn’t lose back-to-back games and the Pack isn’t ready to pass the torch. Green Bay has a solid all-around effort, bouncing back from what coach Mike McCarthy called an ass kicking.
Green Bay 29, Carolina 24
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