The Eagles and Cowboys both have a losing record but enter their Sunday Night Football showdown very much alive in the NFC East race, making this a crucial contest. Dallas beat Philly in the first meeting this season back in Week 2, but it was a costly victory. Tony Romo was lost and the Cowboys haven’t won a game since.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Dallas Cowboys +1.5
Philadelphia Eagles -1.5
Over/Under 45.5
ODDS ANALYSIS
Road teams have dominated this series when it comes to cashing the spread bets, with the visitors going 7-1 ATS in the last eight. Dallas extended that streak with a 20-10 win in Week 2 as 7-point chalk. Things are a bit different this time around, and while the line was wagered to Dallas +2.5, it’s manageable for Philly.
KEY INJURIES
Jason Peters – Missed practice this week due to back spasms that forced him to leave the Carolina game. Against the Panthers, right guard Matt Tobin moved to Peters’ tackle spot. If Peters can’t play Sunday, the Eagles could move left tackle Lane Johnson to the left side.
Barry Church – Is dealing with a lingering ankle issue that has kept him out of practice. He first suffered the injury two weeks ago against the Giants, but returned to play in that game. He also played last week but the ailment isn’t getting better. Church is listed as questionable with Danny McCray behind him on the depth chart at strong safety.
KEY MISMATCH
Romo can’t return to the Cowboys lineup soon enough. Without their star quarterback, Dallas is mired in a five-game losing streak and just hasn’t produced enough on the offensive side. For as much criticism as Romo receives, his value to the team is clearly evident in his absence. Without him the Cowboys have arguably the worst quarterback situation in the NFL, though Houston and Cleveland might have something to say about that. Brandon Weeden wasn’t the answer, losing all three of his starts. Now it’s Matt Cassel bridging the weeks until Romo returns, and he hasn’t been any better, throwing for 324 yards with one touchdown and three picks in two starts. Philly’s pass defense has been a strength, ranking sixth in both opponent’s passer rating and yards allowed per attempt. In their last three games, the Eagles limited Drew Brees, Eli Manning and Cam Newton to 721 yards, four touchdowns and six interceptions. The group could be even stronger with the likely return of linebackers Kiko Alonso and DeMeco Ryans.
KEY STAT
31.9 – Philadelphia’s third-down conversion percentage to rank 29th in the NFL. Dallas allows opponents to convert on third down 40 percent of the time.
BETTING ANGLE
The teams were expected to battle for the NFC East title, but they find themselves staring up at the Giants after starting slowly. Even in a weak division the loser will be in a tough position. DeMarco Murray and the Eagles get a do-over. A lot has changed since Philadelphia’s Week 2 embarrassment when Murray rushed for two yards on 13 carries. An improved run game and solid play from the defense has the Eagles sniffing first place and they could take sole possession of the top spot with a win and a Giants’ loss. But Philadelphia could be in trouble with a stumble in Dallas. Falling to 3-5 with upcoming games against the Cardinals and patriots won’t bode well for their playoff hopes.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
The Cowboys are just too risky of a bet without Romo playing. The defense has propped the team up, but five consecutive losses under Weeden and now Cassel shows just how much Romo means to the club. And when Dallas needed a stop from the D, the unit failed last week, allowing the Seahawks to mount a last minute scoring drive. The Boys’ stern effort in Week 2 produced a 20-10 win over Philly and had them at 2-0 – they haven’t won a game since. And plenty has changed. Romo was injured in that first meeting and Murray had a dismal performance. Philly’s run game has improved with Murray and Ryan Matthews giving the Eagles a lethal attack. Throw in Darren Sproles and the Eagles have upped their average to 114.4 rush yards per game. Sam Bradford appears more comfortable in Chip Kelly’s offense but the mistakes keep coming. He’ll make a few to keep the Cowboys in the game, but Philadelphia has enough to avenge that Week 2 disaster.
Philadelphia 26, Dallas 22
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