The seven-year playoff drought is over for the Miami Dolphins, but their stay in this postseason could be short-lived against a well-rested Pittsburgh Steelers squad. With a playoff seed locked up, the Steelers gave several regulars the day off on Sunday and they were still able to post their seventh straight win. The Fins won the regular season meeting between the clubs behind a monster game from Jay Ajayi. They’ll need more of that to pull off the upset with backup Matt Moore directing the show in the Wild Card matchup.
This matchup in the Wild Card playoff round will take place on Sunday, January 8, 2017, at 1:05 p.m. ET at Heinz Field.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Miami Dolphins +10
Pittsburgh Steelers -10
Over/Under 47.5
Odds Analysis
The Steelers opened as a 10-point home favorite for this matchup, easily the highest on the board, and the public has backed the home team with two-thirds of the early wagers. It is a playoff game and a double-digit line is high, but the Fins are entering unchartered waters with a backup quarterback. Both teams will have to flip the switch after playing meaningless regular season finales and that could even things out some over the course of the contest. Taking the points could be the right choice in this one.
Injury Report
Byron Maxwell – The Dolphins’ top cornerback was out with an ankle injury and the secondary suffered against Tom Brady. The Fins also lost safety Isa Abdul-Quddus, who went on injured reserve with a neck injury, and gave up 276 yards and three scores through the air to Brady and the Pats.
Ricardo Mathews – One area of concern for the Steelers heading into the postseason is their defensive line. Mathews sustained an ankle injury and didn’t play the second half of Sunday’s game and Javon Hargrave was being diagnosed for a possible concussion. The Steelers need to be fully healthy up front to prevent Ajayi from having another big game.
Last Meeting
The Steelers were right were many expected them to be when these clubs met back in Week 6. Pittsburgh had won four of its first five games and the offense, with the exception of that laugher in Philadelphia in Week 3, was humming along. The Steelers had scored at least 24 points in each of their four wins, topped the 30-point mark three times and were averaging 34 points in their victories. They headed to south beach as a 7.5-point favorite. But the Dolphins put together one of their finer outings of the season, starting a four-game slide for the Steelers that had many questioning their playoff worthiness.
What’s worse, the Fins harassed Ben Roethlisberger, holding him to only 189 yards passing while picking him off twice. They also forced Big Ben out of the next game after injuring his knee. But the Dolphins had their way with the Steelers in nearly every facet of that that game. Jay Ajayi torched the Pittsburgh defense by running for 204 yards and a pair of scores and Ryan Tannehill was surgeon-like in carving up the Steelers secondary. Miami produced 474 total yards and held the Steelers to 297 in a 30-15 win. Pittsburgh found its groove over the final seven games of the regular season and would like to get some payback for that early season debacle.
Free ATS Pick
Having a healthy quarterback means so much come playoff time and the Steelers have theirs. Roethlisberger has been sharp and the offense has utilized all its weapons during the win streak that captured the AFC North crown for Pittsburgh. The Dolphins are a good story and they’ve done some wonderful things this season. Give plenty of credit to Adam Gase for turning that franchise back into a playoff team. But without Tannehill the Fins aren’t good enough to beat the Steelers.
Moore won’t win the game, but the Steelers have been porous on defense for much of the year. Miami needs Ajayi to produce on the ground and then Moore will take his shots to a talented group of receivers. Both defenses have sprung some leaks and the Dolphins don’t have the speed to catch up with Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell. The spread is up there and I like the Dolphins to cover, however, they just don’t have the horses to keep up in a game that has the over in sight.
NFL Odds: Steelers 27, Dolphins 23
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