The Bengals haven’t won a playoff game in 25 years, the sixth-longest postseason drought in NFL history. They’re the only team in league history to lose an opening-round game four years in a row. And they play their longtime nemesis and AFC North rival Pittsburgh with a rookie quarterback making his fourth career start. That’s why Cincy is a 3-point home dog.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Cincinnati Bengals +3
Pittsburgh Steelers -3
Over/Under 46
ODDS ANALYSIS
These division rivals split their season series with an average scoring margin of 9.5 points for the winner. The Steelers opened as a 3-point favorite despite the Bengals going 6-2 SU and 4-3-1 ATS at home this season. The total dropped a half-point to 45.5 with the two regular season matchups producing combined scores of 26 and 53 points.
KEY INJURIES
DeAngelo Williams – The Steelers aren’t ready to rule out their running back for Saturday just yet. Williams left the field last week with a right foot injury and is listed as day-to-day. He tied for the NFL lead with 11 rushing touchdowns filling in for Le’Veon Bell. Jordan Todman and Fitzgerald Toussaint are in line for more reps if Williams can’t go.
Emmanuel Lamur – Cincinnati lost a key special teams performer and backup linebacker when Lamur was put on injured reserve after sustaining a knee injury last Sunday. He played in every regular season game and was third in special teams tackles.
KEY MISMATCH
With all the chatter leading up to this game revolving around the quarterbacks, the defense will have plenty to say about the outcome. Statistically, the Bengals weren’t outstanding in any particular category except one. They had the 20th-ranked pass defense and finished seventh in rushing yards allowed. With over 340 total yards per game surrendered, they placed 11th. But the Bengals were able to keep opponents out of the end zone, setting a 16-game team record and placing second in the NFL by allowing 279 points, an average of 17.4 per game. Carlos Dunlap had 13.5 sacks and Geno Atkins added 11.0, giving the Bengals a pair of relentless pass-rushing defensive linemen. This could be the second consecutive year Pittsburgh enters the playoffs without its leading rusher, and it wasn’t pretty last time when they failed to compensate for the absence of Bell. As good as Antonio Brown and Ben Roethlisberger have been, being predictable could be a formula for disaster if the Steelers can’t mount a credible running game.
KEY STAT
+11 – Cincinnati’s turnover margin. Led by Reggie Nelson’s NFL-high tying eight interceptions, the Bengals had the third-most as a team and finished third in differential. Pittsburgh’s 21 picks were the third-most, 16 of those tossed by Roethlisberger. The Steelers placed 16th in turnover margin.
BETTING ANGLE
The Steelers have been Cincinnati’s nemesis over the years, going 13-2 SU in the past 15 road meetings and 4-1 SU and ATS in the last five games between the teams overall. That does not bode well for the home team, especially if Andy Dalton remains sidelined. But Pittsburgh is dealing with some issues of its own ahead of the Wild Card matchup, mainly at running back. If Williams can’t help balance the offense, Roethlisberger will have to make things happen in the air. He had only one touchdown with four interceptions in the two games against the Bengals this season. No one on this Bengals roster was here 10 years ago when the Steelers tore Carson Palmer’s ACL on the second snap of the 2005 Wild Card game at Paul Brown Stadium, and went on to a 30-17 win. Coach Marvin Lewis was. “Time to right the ship. Exorcism,” Lewis said about revenge a decade in the making.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
These teams are quite familiar with each other and there is some bad-blood between them, but don’t expect the extracurricular shenanigans to get in the way of what should be a tremendous game. It’s hard to prepare against a team you know so well, and that’s were self-scouting becomes important. In that aspect, the Bengals will have an advantage with A.J. McCarron starting at quarterback. The Steelers picked him off twice when McCarron came on in relief of Dalton in Week 14. But A.J. has been solid since then, going 2-1 in this three starts without tossing an interception. He’s been in big games during his college career at Alabama and has done a nice job taking care of the football. Cincinnati will soften up Pittsburgh’s defense with a run game that has gotten better in Dalton’s absence, setting up McCarron to take shots downfield to A.J. Green and Tyler Eifert against a suspect secondary. The Bengals will win the turnover battle with a pick or two of Roethlisberger and will end their playoff drought.
Cincinnati 26, Pittsburgh 20
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Click here and start wagering today! The matchup between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cincinnati Bengals will take place Saturday, January 9, 2016, at 8:15 p.m. ET at Paul Brown Stadium. The matchup will be televised live on CBS.
