Chip Kelly is a much flashier head coach than Jim Tomsula and his hiring created a buzz in the Bay Area. However, the Niners roster hasn’t changed much from that 5-11 disaster last season and Kelly isn’t the genius to turn this thing around. San Francisco was plain boring offensively in 2015, finishing dead last in the NFL in points per game. That will likely change with Kelly at the helm, but the wins will be just as difficult to come by.
The preseason battle between the Houston Texans and San Francisco 49ers will take place Sunday, August 14, 2016, at 7 p.m. ET at Levi’s Stadium.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Houston Texans +3 ( -105 )
San Francisco 49ers -3 ( -115 )
Over/Under 36.5
ODDS ANALYSIS
The Niners are 7-3 SU and 6-4 ATS in their last 10 preseason home games and opened as 3-point chalk. The teams met in last year’s preseason opener with the Texans covering in a 23-10 home win. Kelly likes to play the over – he’s 10-2 during his career – and the scoreline is low for his standards at 36.5.
QUARTERBACK ROTATION
Coach Bill O’Brien plans on starting his new franchise quarterback and getting him “a decent amount of snaps” in the first half of the Texans preseason opener. A starting quarterback usually plays a series or two in the first exhibition game, but the circumstances surrounding Brock Osweiler are different.
Sure he’s the starter after inking a hefty free agent deal, but Osweiler has played in just 21 regular season games over his first four years in the league. And he’s working for the first time in a new system. Second-year pro Tom Savage has impressed O’Brien at camp and will take snaps following Osweiler. Brandon Weeden is also on the roster after coming over from Dallas towards the end of last season. He will also play, according to O’Brien.
We don’t know who will start for the 49ers on Sunday, but we do know that both Blaine Gabbert and Colin Kaepernick will see time behind center. Kelly has been mum on his plans and some reports say the team will alternate both players with each getting first-team reps.
Gabbert has an edge in the competition for the starting job simply because he’s been around the new coaching staff longer. Kap missed some offseason workouts while recovering from shoulder surgery. Career backup and practice squad player Thaddeus Lewis, along with rookie Jeff Driskell are also on the roster, but likely won’t see much action.
COACHING HISTORY
The Texans and O’Brien are approaching this preseason a little differently than last year. In 2015 there was an open competition for the starting quarterback job between Brian Hoyer and Ryan Mallett and reps were split. The team went 2-2 SU and ATS. Osweiler is the guy this year, and the plan is to get him acclimated to the new system. He will play Sunday until O’Brien thinks he’s done enough.
Kelly liked showing off his up-tempo offense during his tenure with the Eagles and he certainly isn’t going to change his style now that he’s coaching in Santa Clara. Last preseason, Philly played above the scoreline three times in four games, and over his NFL coaching career, the over is 10-2 in exhibition games. He’s trying to transform an offense that averaged a league-low 14.9 points per game during the 2015 season.
QUICK PICK
You just can’t fit a square peg in a round hole, but that won’t stop Kelly from trying. The no-huddle, tempo-paced attack he brought with him from the University of Oregon to the Eagles wore thin. Now he brings the show to Northern California. The Niners are thin on talent and it’s questionable if the attacking style will work with a team that scored the fewest points last year.
The Niners reached the 20-point mark four times and their highest output for the season was 27. They went two full games in the middle of the year without scoring a touchdown. And many of the same players are back.
There is hope against a Texans defense that will be minus defensive player of the year J.J. Watt. However, the Texans are much more than just him on that side of the ball. The D carried Houston to the AFC South title last season, now the offense, with Osweiler running the show, is expected to catch up. Even with their top two QBs taking most of the snaps, the Niners will fall short.
NFL Odds: Texans 31, 49ers 22
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