The Dallas Cowboys received some surprising news this week when the NFL announced that running back Ezekiel Elliott would be suspended for the first six games of the season for domestic violence. The young star’s presumed absence will have an effect on the spreads for those games, but he is still allowed to play in the preseason.
While Elliott isn’t expected to play a lot in the second week of the preseason against the Indianapolis Colts, he will at least be available. The same cannot be said for Colts quarterback Andrew Luck, who is still on the physically unable to perform list after undergoing surgery this offseason.
Luck’s absence will play a big role in the odds for this contest.
This Week 2 preseason contest will go down Saturday, August 19, 2017, at 4 p.m. ET at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.
Opening NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Indianapolis Colts +5.5
Dallas Cowboys -5.5
Over/Under 39.5
Odds Analysis
It’s not often preseason games have spreads this big, but the Cowboys are expected to be a really good team this season and have their full complement of stars. If Elliott, quarterback Dak Prescott and wide receiver Dez Bryant play the first quarter, it automatically gives Dallas a big leg up.
Add in the home field advantage, and it is understandable why the Colts are sizable underdogs even though this will be a battle of backups by the second half. The scoring total is a little higher than a lot of games.
Quarterback Rotation
The Colts will likely go with the same three quarterbacks as last week with Luck still on the shelf. Backup Scott Tolzien could see more work, although he is not an accomplished signal-caller and could run into trouble against the Cowboys’ first-team defense. Tolzien went 2-of-5 for 24 yards in the team’s preseason opening loss to the Lions.
Phillip Walker could see considerable time after he was 9-of-20 for 86 yards last week. Stephen Morris is the other quarterback on the roster. Morris was 13-of-20 for 94 yards in the opener. None of the quarterbacks lit it up and the Colts could have trouble scoring again.
Prescott didn’t play in the first two games of the preseason but could see action in this one. He was dynamic as a rookie and is hoping to be efficient in this contest. Kellen Moore was 8-of-17 for 69 yards last week. Luke McCown was 6-of-13 for 31 yards, while Cooper Rush was the most impressive of the trio, finishing 9-of-11 for 104 yards and a touchdown.
The Cowboys’ backups haven’t been particularly inspiring but the expected presence of Prescott would boost the team’s potential.
Coaching History
Jason Garrett is 10-17 in the preseason in his career, including 1-1 this year. Dallas defeated the Arizona Cardinals in the Hall of Fame Game before losing last week. He has only gone 2-10 in the previous three preseasons, which is something to keep in mind with this spread so high.
Chuck Pagano is 7-14 in the preseason. He has never had a winning preseason, finishing 2-2 three times, 1-3 once and 0-4 once. The Colts are aiming to avoid going 0-2 this year with a loss to Dallas.
Free ATS Pick
While it makes sense to choose the Cowboys, the spread rules against it. There is too much unknown in the preseason, and if the first team only plays a series and doesn’t score for Dallas, the Colts should have a good chance at covering.
It’s always a smart idea to grab the points in toss-up games. Ignore the absence of Luck and take the Colts to cover. If there is a moneyline that is attractive, choosing Indianapolis straight up is another good play.
NFL Odds: Colts 20, Cowboys 17
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