The backups for the Jacksonville Jaguars excelled in the third week of the preseason, scoring 15 unanswered fourth-quarter points to earn their team the first win of the exhibition slate. They will aim to keep rolling as they get plenty of playing time against the Atlanta Falcons in Week 4 of the preseason.
Atlanta can round out a perfect preseason home showing and finish 3-1 overall heading into the regular season with a win in this one.
Kickoff for this preseason season Week 4 game is set for Thursday, September 1, 2016, at 7 p.m. ET at the Georgia Dome.
Odds Analysis
The fourth preseason game features almost exclusively backups as the teams want to make sure the starters are rested and healthy for a regular season which begins in earnest in two weeks. Usually differing quarterback situations can help dissect which team has the advantage, but the Jaguars and Falcons are similar in that they have veteran backups and young, unproven players after that.
The home field advantage isn’t huge in the fourth preseason game but it’s enough to give the Falcons a slight edge as they want to play well for their fans.
Quarterback Rotation
While neither side has made public its playing time plan, it’s a given that Jaguars starting quarterback Blake Bortles and Falcons starter Matt Ryan sit during this fourth preseason game. The most interesting decision will center around Falcons veteran backup Matt Schaub.
Schaub has played well this preseason, completing 28-of-38 passes for 366 yards, albeit with no touchdowns or interceptions. He isn’t starter-quality at this stage in his career but looks like a nice reliable backup. If he plays, he could do very well against a second-string Jaguars defense.
Atlanta cut Sean Renfree over the weekend as it trimmed its roster down to 75, so Matt Simms could see a lot of action. He went 0-for-3 passing against the Redskins in Week 1, but improved significantly in Week 2, finishing 10-of-13 for 136 yards and a touchdown. With Ryan seeing significant time last week, Simms didn’t play but should get another shot to impress this week.
With Bortles out, backup Chad Henne should get the majority of the reps this week with rookie Brandon Allen seeing time after that. Henne has thrown for 202 yards in the first three preseason games this year. He has completed 19-of-27 passes with a touchdown and two interceptions. Henne should do the heavy lifting this week.
Allen was 10-for-19 for 138 yards and an interception in Week 1 of the preseason, his NFL debut, against the Falcons and went 0-for-3 with an interception the following week against Tampa Bay. He didn’t play at all last week. Allen was a sixth round pick in this year’s draft out of Arkansas. He could definitely use the reps and should be eager for another chance to make an impression.
Coaching History
Jacksonville head coach Gus Bradley has not fared well in the preseason to date. In his fourth season as the Jaguars head coach, Bradley has a preseason record of 5-10. He has never had a winning record in any single preseason, but finished at .500 in 2015. He is 1-2 heading into Week 4.
Second-year coach Dan Quinn is 4-3 so far in the preseason. He finished his first preseason in the NFL at 2-2 last season and has a chance to improve upon that finish this year.
Free ATS Pick
Schaub is the most important factor in this game. If he plays a half, it could swing the outcome, as he has looked solid in the preseason and could aim to cap off his exhibition play with another nice showing.
If Schaub sits, the team’s offense may not click as well. Both sides will get one final look at the back-end of their rosters before final cuts have to be made, and if there are one or two huge plays it could make the difference in the outcome in what could be a low-scoring affair.
NFL Odds: Falcons 19, Jaguars 17
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