The Packers proved last week they can win games even when Aaron Rodgers has a rare mediocre performance. He looks to return to his stellar ways and keep Green Bay undefeated both straight up and against the spread when it hosts a Chargers squad looking to regroup from a final-play loss.
ODDS
Green Bay opened as a 9.5-point favorite with the total at 50. The Packers have won 12 straight overall at home, going 9-2-1 ATS in that span. The line was wagered to -10.5 and that’s a lot of points for a desperate road team that can score in a hurry.
KEY INJURIES
Orlando Franklin – San Diego’s starting guard was held out of practice with a lingering ankle injury. King Dunlap and Chris Watt were other starting members of the Chargers’ offensive line that didn’t practice, leaving the team thin up front.
Manti Te’o – Was in and out of last week’s game dealing with an ankle injury and is questionable against Green Bay. Second-round pick Denzel Perryman would get his first career start if Te’o is unable to play.
Nick Perry – Likely needs this week and next week’s bye to recover from the shoulder injury he sustained in last weekend’s game with St. Louis. The outside linebacker has 3.5 sacks in his last three games.
KEY MISMATCH
Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers, the NFL’s reigning MVP, is without a doubt the best quarterback San Diego will face this season. Through five games he’s again looking like an MVP candidate. Rodgers has thrown a league-best 13 touchdowns to just two interceptions despite injuries to his receiving corps. The Packers are hopeful to have deep-ball threat Davante Adams back from an ankle injury that he suffered a few weeks ago. The second-year receiver is listed as a limited participant in the team’s injury report. The Chargers used cornerback Jason Verrett to clamp down on Steelers All-Pro receiver Antonio Brown, who was held to three catches and 45 yards on Monday night. Markus Wheaton, meanwhile, beat Brandon Flowers for a touchdown, the fifth time that’s happened to him in four games. The Chargers have had difficulty generating consistent pressure, so Rodgers should be able to slide around the pocket buying time for his receivers to get open.
KEY STAT
37.3 – Green Bay opponent’s third down conversion rate. San Diego converts 39.1 percent of its third down chances and was just 4 of 14 on third down against the Steelers on Monday night.
BETTING ANGLE
Chargers rookie running back Melvin Gordon has yet to have a breakout game and is still looking for his first NFL touchdown. A homecoming might be what he needs. Gordon attended the University of Wisconsin, where he set a major college record for career rushing average with 7.79 yards per carry, and grew up in Kenosha. Gordon hasn’t had the success so far in his first season in San Diego, but the effort on every run is there. And if there’s one weakness in Green Bay’s defense, it’s definitely against the run. Dom Capers’ unit is allowing five yards per attempt and 130.2 yards per game. In his first trip back to Wisconsin as an NFL player, Gordon has a favorable matchup to do well on the ground. And how special would it be for him to get his first touchdown and a win in front of family and friends at Lambeau Field?
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
San Diego’s offense will be the first real test of the season for the Packers’ defense. Green Bay is ranked seventh in the NFL in fewest yards allowed, but has yet to face a team with San Diego’s ability to move the football. The Pack surrendered 159 yards on the ground last week to Todd Gurley and the Chargers will happily take that kind of production from their rookie back Gordon. But the Chargers are working behind a patched up offensive line and those numbers are unlikely. The Packers are hard enough to beat at Lambeau Field, much less entering the game potentially down three starting offensive linemen. But the Chargers have a way of winning games nobody expects them to, and this could be one of them. There is little reason for the Pack to be concerned, though. Rivers is prone to turnovers and Green Bay’s defense is opportunistic enough to take advantage.
Green Bay 30, San Diego 23
The NFL lines for this Sunday game were first available at BookMaker Sportsbook. The Packers were pegged as 9.5-point chalk while the total opened at 50. Live wagering during commercials offers an adjusted moneyline, totals and spreads. Log in and start gambling during the game now!
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