The undefeated Packers proved they can win even when Aaron Rodgers isn’t slinging the ball all around the yard and are the favorite to win Super Bowl 50 after four weeks of NFL action. Green Bay has put cash in the pockets of its bettors also, going 4-0 ATS this season and 8-2 in its last 10 regular season games at Lambeau Field.
ODDS
Green Bay opened as a 10.5-point favorite at home with the total hitting the board at 47.5. A nice win in Arizona has the Rams back on the radar and the line was wagered down to -8.5. The Rams won straight up as a touchdown dog last week in Arizona, but are just 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games on the road.
KEY INJURIES
Alec Ogletree – Underwent surgery Tuesday to repair his fractured right fibula and could miss 8-12 weeks if not placed on season-ending injured reserve. He was the team’s leading tackler from his linebacker spot in each of his first two seasons and led the team before his injury. Akeem Ayers will move to the weakside spot and Jo-Lonn Dunbar was re-signed to add depth at the position.
Davante Adams – Missed last game with an ankle injury, but is out of his walking boot and a limited participant in practice. He is doubtful to play on Sunday, giving rookie Ty Montgomery more snaps with the offense.
KEY MISMATCH
The undefeated Packers are much more than a one-man show. They’re good enough to win even when Aaron Rodgers puts up modest numbers. Green Bay’s defense turned in a dominant performance in last week’s win at San Francisco. Coming off a seven-sack performance six days prior, the Pack sacked Niners quarterback Colin Kaepernick six times and held San Francisco to 196 total yards. “We got a very good pass rush unit,” said linebacker Clay Mathews, who has three of Green Bay’s 17 sacks this season. “I think you saw the sacks, the quarterback hits, the pressures. Not just one guy, but several.” Despite their 24-point outburst last Sunday, the Rams are still a weak offensive club, ranking last in the NFL in total offense at 287.8 yards per game, 28th in passing yards and 25th in scoring at 18.5 points per game. But their patchwork offensive line has done a nice job limiting the sacks with only five allowed through four games.
KEY STAT
32.6 – St. Louis’ 28th ranked third-down conversion rate. It’s hard to score if you can’t sustain drives with critical third-down conversions. Green Bay allows opponents to convert 40 percent of the time.
BETTING ANGLE
Who are the real St. Louis Rams? Four weeks into the season, it’s safe to say that we don’t yet know. For every shocking, dominant performance the Rams put up against opponents such as Seattle and Arizona, St. Louis has a head-scratching loss to teams like the Redskins and Steelers without Ben Roethlisberger. Even if the Rams sort out their consistency issues and become an NFC playoff contender this season on the strength of their defense and blossoming run game behind rookie Todd Gurley, it’s hard to imagine them walking into Lambeau Field and beating Aaron Rodgers and the Packers at home. Green Bay has won 11 straight games at Lambeau Field, including playoffs, and is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 regular season games there.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
Rodgers has been out of this world at home, with 48 touchdown passes since his last interception thrown at Lambeau, which was in Week 13 of the 2012 season. The Rams defense prides itself on having an elite group of pass rushers who should be able to keep Rodgers on his toes, but those pressures don’t always translate into takeaways, and in fact Rodgers rarely gives up the ball at home. If the Rams want to put the squeeze on the Packers offense, they will need to force fumbles and blanket Rodgers’ top weapons in Randall Cobb and James Jones. They can’t forget about Green Bay’s run game with Eddie Lacy and James Starks responsible for leading the third ranked rush attack. St. Louis could attempt to exploit the Pack’s run defense with Gurley, but after limiting Marshawn Lynch, Jamaal Charles and Carlos Hyde to fewer than 50 yards each, that could prove to be difficult.
Green Bay 27, St. Louis 17
The NFL lines for this Sunday game were first available at BookMaker Sportsbook. The Packers were pegged as 10.5-point chalk while the total opened at 47.5. Live wagering during commercials offers an adjusted moneyline, totals and spreads. Log in and start gambling during the game now!
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