Nobody is talking about the St. Louis Rams or Minnesota Vikings in the NFC playoff race but both teams have quietly snuck their way into contention. The winner of this one officially becomes a factor. If you like good old-fashioned run-based football, you’ll definitely enjoy this matchup, which features the NFL’s top two running backs in Todd Gurley and Adrian Peterson.
ODDS
Minnesota opened as a 3-point favorite with the total at 40. Both teams are strong on defense while lacking firepower on offense giving total bettors some cash on the under. The Vikings have played below the closing total six times in seven games while the under is 5-2 in St. Louis’ seven contests. The total was wagered to 39, the lowest on the board this week.
KEY INJURIES
Rob Havenstein – Had an Achilles tendon injury flare up on him that limited his reps last week. The Rams’ starting right tackle is questionable to play on Sunday. Darrell Williams got a handful of snaps late in the win over San Francisco and is in line to play if Havenstein experiences more discomfort.
Everson Griffen – Left last week’s game in Chicago with a shoulder injury and didn’t return. He was replaced at defensive end by rookie Danielle Hunter. Griffen is questionable to play on Sunday.
KEY MISMATCH
Both teams have a standout running back, an effective offensive line and a stellar defense. In other words, they’re fairly evenly matched. The difference comes at the quarterback position, where Minnesota’s Teddy Bridgewater saved his best for last in a comeback win at Chicago last weekend. Bridgewater connected on six of his final seven passes, throwing for 106 yards and a touchdown with a perfect passer rating in the final four minutes. The Vikings were down 20-13 and needed a touchdown to avoid their eighth consecutive loss at Soldier Field. And Bridgewater delivered, engineering 10 points in the dying minutes for the win. Bridgewater has now won 11 games as a NFL starter and has posted a fourth-quarter comeback in five of them. He also has a career passer rating of 93.8 in the final four minutes of games. Minnesota’s run defense will be challenged by Todd Gurley. But if the Vikings can slow the rookie down and force Nick Foles into a bigger role, Minnesota has the edge, even against a Rams front that has been dominant the last two weeks.
KEY STAT
17.2 – Minnesota’s points per game allowed. The Vikings haven’t given up more than 23 points in a game this season and rank second in scoring defense. St. Louis is 28th in the NFL in scoring with 19.3 points per game overall and averages just 14.7 in its three road games.
BETTING ANGLE
For the first time since 2006 the Rams have a winning record in November, but they still have plenty to prove. Consecutive wins over Cleveland and San Francisco are signs that the Rams are mature enough to take care of business against inferior opponents. But the Rams have teased before. Just last year they pitched back-to-back shutouts against Oakland and Washington before losing three straight to end the NFL season. This week should give us a more realistic view of how far these Rams have come. St. Louis has a chance to put together three straight wins for only the second time since Jeff Fisher took over as coach in 2012. It might not sound like much, but it would put the Rams in position to make a run at the postseason for the first time since 2004. The Rams and Vikings could be fighting for a wild card spot at the end of the year and this game could play a role in deciding who claims a possible final berth.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
Right when we start to get excited about the Rams, they do something to turn us off. Their season-opening win over Seattle was nice, but a loss the following week at Washington made us start over. A pair of wins over less than stellar competition has everyone all giddy once again. They have dominated inferior opponents the last two weeks, which I guess is a sign that the Rams have turned a corner, but the offense, even with Gurley running wild, makes them a cautious bet. Minnesota might be the best team that nobody’s talking about. The Vikes are within a game of the Packers in the NFC North and while not spectacular, they’ve gotten the job done. The Vikes will slow down Gurley forcing Foles to make plays, and he just can’t do it. This has all the makings of a close, low-scoring game and the Vikings have proven to be successful in those situations.
Minnesota 22, St. Louis 20
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