Could we see Peyton Manning riding off into the sunset, ending his illustrious career with a Super Bowl win? Or is this Cam Newton’s coming out party on the grandest stage of all? Whatever happens, Super Bowl 50 should be a good one with the two top teams from each conference battling for the Lombardi Trophy.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Carolina Panthers -4
Denver Broncos +4
Over/Under 45
ODDS ANALYSIS
The line has moved gradually in favor of Carolina, up to its current -5.5. And while the Panthers have proven to be the team to beat, don’t dismiss the Broncos, who have been scarier as an underdog. Denver has gone 5-1 SU and 5-0-1 ATS in its last six when given points. If you’re siding with the Panthers, keep in mind that the favored team has lost four straight Super Bowls SU and ATS, and has only covered in three of the last 15.
KEY INJURIES
Thomas Davis – Carolina’s outside linebacker suffered a broken arm in the NFC Championship game and has vowed to play against Denver. He had surgery the day after beating Arizona with several screws inserted to repair the break.
Jared Allen – Has not played in the postseason as he continues recovering from a broken bone in his foot. He is questionable to play in Super Bowl 50. Kony Ealy gets the nod at defensive end if Allen hasn’t fully healed.
Darian Stewart – Denver’s safety was the only player not on the practice field during last week’s preparations. He suffered a knee injury late in the second half against New England and didn’t return. He’s listed as questionable, but coach Gary Kubiak said he is encouraged by the progress he’s made.
KEY MISMATCH
The Panthers bounced back from their only loss of the season by easily handling the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the regular season finale. The momentum from that win against a top 10 defense carried into the postseason, culminating with Carolina’s 34-point win over Arizona in the NFC Championship. While the Divisional Round win over Seattle was slightly different, the Panthers’ brand of dominance was on full display. Led by MVP favorite Cam Newton, who set career-highs for touchdown passes and passer rating in 2015, the Panthers’ offense has been efficient and deadly during the playoffs, outscoring Seattle and Arizona 55-7 in the first half. Denver led the NFL in average yards allowed, sacks, has yielded 34 points and 568 yards in two playoff games, and hit Tom Brady 23 times in the conference title game. But the Broncos have not faced a dual-threat quarterback quite like Newton this season. The former Heisman Trophy winner has thrown a career-low 10 interceptions and rushed for 636 yards and 10 touchdowns. The Panthers easily handled two of the NFC’s best defenses during the postseason and there’s no reason to think the Broncos can enjoy much success slowing them down.
KEY STAT
+20 – Carolina’s turnover differential. The Panthers led the NFL during the regular season with an astounding 39 takeaways. That trend has continued through the playoffs with the Panthers collecting seven of their nine postseason takeaways in the NFC Championship game.
BETTING ANGLE
All Carolina does is win. At 15-1, the Panthers posted the best regular season record, coming within a dog of a game at Atlanta of finishing perfect. The strong straight up performance was transferrable to the betting window during the season as they went 11-5 ATS to finish as the third-best wager this season. The numbers continued to impress during the postseason with two additional SU and ATS victories. Then there’s the Peyton Manning angle. Sure, Denver covered the spread against New England and the Divisional Round game resulted in a push, but Manning-led teams are just 2-6-1 ATS in his previous nine postseason games. In three Super Bowl appearances, Manning has gone 1-2 SU and ATS, winning his first attempt and dropping his next two. If you’re a believer in momentum heading into the Super Bowl, it’s hard to back off the Panthers.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
Both teams have something to prove heading into Super Bowl 50. Nobody expected the Broncos to get here after Manning struggled all season. But Denver’s defense certainly stole the show and is the crutch holding up the legendary quarterback in what could be his final game. The Broncos shut down Pittsburgh and New England on its path the Super Bowl, but they haven’t seen anything like Newton this season. Seattle and Arizona, two NFC teams with scary good defenses, were no match for the Panthers, who made them look silly in two postseason romps. Manning isn’t the slinger he once was, but he keeps the Broncos close simply because of his cerebral approach to the game. However, the Panthers have feasted on turnovers all season and will again be the beneficiary, using a Denver gaffe to become Super Bowl champs.
Carolina 27, Denver 23
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