It certainly seems as though there are only a handful of teams which are capable of winning the Super Bowl this year, and there's a definitive divide starting to open up between the teams at the top with a shot and the ones at the bottom who are, at best, just clinging to the hopes of a playoff berth.
Updated Super Bowl Odds at BookMaker.eu
New England Patriots +260
Green Bay Packers +450
Arizona Cardinals +800
Denver Broncos +800
Carolina Panthers +900
Cincinnati Bengals +1400
Seattle Seahawks +1400
New York Giants +2500
Atlanta Falcons +2800
Pittsburgh Steelers +3300
Minnesota Vikings +3300
Dallas Cowboys +3300
Indianapolis Colts +4000
Philadelphia Eagles +4000
St. Louis Rams +4000
New York Jets +5000
New Orleans Saints +6600
Oakland Raiders +6600
Miami Dolphins +10000
Houston Texans +10000
Buffalo Bills +15000
Washington Redskins +15000
Kansas City Chiefs +15000
Jacksonville Jaguars +20000
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +30000
San Diego Chargers +50000
Tennessee Titans +50000
Baltimore Ravens +50000
Chicago Bears +50000
Detroit Lions +100000
Cleveland Browns +100000
San Francisco 49ers +100000
THE CONTENDERS
One glance at the NFL standings, and it's clear who are the haves and who are the have nots. The jury is still out on whether the 8-0 Panthers and Bengals have staying power, but there is one team for sure which is still going to be the team to beat until proven otherwise, and that's the defending champ.
The Patriots are on a pace to break all of the offensive records they set back in their perfect regular season, and they probably only have two games the rest of this season in which they aren't going to be double-digit favorites. Even if they do lose a game or two, there isn't a potential playoff matchup in which New England won't be favored, save for maybe a Super Bowl date with Green Bay. There's a reason the Pats are the +260 favorites, and they'll only face shrinking odds from there once they put the Bengals and Broncos in their rearview mirrors once and for all.
The Bengals aren't getting much respect at 14 to 1, namely due to the fact that Marvin Lewis and Andy Dalton have a combined zero playoff wins between them.
The Panthers are going to get a lot more run in these next couple weeks assuming they don't fall off the horse and lose to a team like Tennessee. Carolina is 8-0, and it essentially has three games on the rest of the field in the conference with two games and the tiebreaker over Green Bay along with three games on the Falcons in the NFC South. A price of 9 to 1 on Carolina won't last much longer as long as it continues to take care of its business.
The other usual suspects remain. Arizona has the inside track to a bye but a treacherous schedule the rest of the way, which is why it is 8 to 1, while the oddsmakers don't have a ton of confidence in Peyton Manning, which is why the Broncos are only 8 to 1.
THE TRUTH HURTS IN NFC EAST, AFC SOUTH
And that truth? Someone has to represent these two divisions in the playoffs and host a playoff game.
The Colts seem like the obvious choice at 40 to 1 in the AFC. They proved they could beat Denver last week, and though they are still only 4-5, they play in a dumpster fire of a division, and their schedule loosens up a ton the rest of the way. We still think this is a 9-7 team at worst as long as things don't implode, and at that price, we'll take our chances that Indy can catch a couple of the big boys napping.
Over in the NFC, Philadelphia might have the best price on its head at 40 to 1. We still feel like the Eagles should be the favorites to ultimately win the NFC East even though they've been completely dysfunctional for most of the season.
If you're looking for longshots with a legitimate shot to at least get in the playoffs, start looking at some of the bottom-feeder AFC teams right now. Even 2-6 Baltimore and San Diego, both of which are 500 to 1 on the Super Bowl odds, are only 2.5 games back of Pittsburgh for the second Wild Card spot, and it's not like the Jets are exuding a ton of confidence as the top Wild Card right now either. There isn't a team outside of Cleveland which we consider to be totally out of it, so firing away on some of the big time underdogs might provide some good value later down the line.
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