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The Denver Broncos have one of the most ferocious defenses we've seen in the NFL in quite some time, but they're going to have to answer a lot of questions early on against the Carolina Panthers, who have been absolutely mauling all of their foes in the first quarters of games thus far in the postseason.
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The first question that begs to be answered is who is going to end up scoring first in this game. Just by nature, this prop is usually divided pretty evenly, and there generally isn't a lot of value on either side when you consider the extra vig taken for prop purposes. That said, in this case, the Broncos could have some added value here considering that the betting public generally overreacts to what it just saw.
Carolina's last two first quarters have been absolutely insane against both Seattle and Arizona. In both cases, the defense made a couple big plays early on, and the offense was able to make some big plays to setup easy scores. Furthermore, Graham Gano is one of the most reliable kickers in the league, and if the Broncos do end up coming up with a stop inside the 30-yard line or so, the former Florida State kicker is a good bet to finish the job and put points on the board.
Let's also not forget that Denver's last Super Bowl appearance started with the disastrous safety against Seattle. Bettors will have that in mind as well and will wonder if Peyton Manning is set to get off to yet another slow start.
The case for betting on Denver though, is going to be a lot more intriguing as we see it. This edition of Manning post-foot injury has been significantly better than the one who was probably set to lose his job even if he hadn't gotten hurt in the middle of the season. He's gone consecutive games without throwing a pick, and the one turnover he was responsible for really wasn't his fault and wouldn't have happened had Ronnie Hillman followed the ball that he dropped which was thrown behind the line of scrimmage instead of standing by idle.
Manning's recent history suggests that running the ball is going to be the path to victory, and with Thomas Davis either out of the fold or at minimum less effective after hurting his arm last week, there could be some holes, especially if either Hillman or C.J. Anderson can turn the corner on a run.
Just as Gano is awfully reliable, the Broncos have a great kicker as well in Brandon McManus, who has a leg big enough for Gary Kubiak to trust him up to 52 or 53 yards without flinching.
Unlike Russell Wilson and Carson Palmer before him, we don't see Manning play into Carolina's hands by turning the ball over early on, and we think he's actually set to lead Denver to the first score of the football game.
That said, we just can't rely on him getting into the end zone. All too often, especially against Pittsburgh, drives were treated cautiously, and third and long in field goal range became short passes or hand offs just to set McManus up for three points. Carolina's defense won't give up the big play in this one either, knowing that Manning can't really throw the ball that far down the field, especially if the wind is whipping around in Santa Clara.
A price of beyond 3 to 1 is going to be on Denver's kicker to put the first points of the Super Bowl on the board, and we aren't going to miss out on it on Super Sunday.
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