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Run the ball and play good defense. For as pass-happy as the NFL has gotten over the years, for the most part, the teams not named the New England Patriots who have been able to run the ball, whether as the main source of offense or to setup the pass, have ultimately been the best bets to go on and win Super Bowls.
We've got two teams in front of us at Super Bowl 50 in the Panthers and Broncos who fully believe in their ground games, and these running backs might end up being the difference-makers on Super Sunday.
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The whole postseason changed on the first play from scrimmage in the Carolina/Seattle game a few weeks ago. Jonathan Stewart, who had been out with a foot injury for three straight games, ripped off a 59-yard run to setup what would be the first seven points of a 31-0 run to start the game against the two-time defending NFC champs.
The message was sent loud and clear that the Panthers were legit and were going to use their running game to the fullest.
Stewart has had 19 carries in each of his two playoff games this year, and he's amassed 189 total yards on the ground.
Here in the Super Bowl against one of the best rush defenses in the NFL, Stewart's over/under is just 68.5 rushing yards. It should be noted though, that this is the first truly good running back the Broncos have faced in a while. Steven Jackson is probably the best tailback the Broncos have had to face in the playoffs. Five years ago, that might've been a challenge, but at this point, that's a walk in the park, relatively speaking.
Fozzie Whitaker came back into the lineup in the NFC Championship Game after sitting out in the Divisional Round of the playoffs, but his impact has been limited. He had -2 yards on two carries against the Cards, but he could play a bigger role here.
That might not hurt Stewart all that much, but it will hurt Mike Tolbert, who has an over/under of 9.5 rushing yards in the Super Bowl. Tolbert had seven carries for 17 yards against Seattle but was much more quiet against Arizona with just three rushes for four yards.
Carolina's team rushing total for the Super Bowl is set at 125.5, and considering the fact that the Panthers have gone 31 straight games with at least 100 yards on the ground as a team, we wouldn't bet against them.
The Broncos have a team over/under of 98.5 rushing yards due to the fact that they don't have the benefit of having a mobile quarterback. Ronnie Hillman has a rushing total of 37.5 yards in the Super Bowl, while C.J. Anderson is set at 62.5.
Considering the fact that this backfield seems to be split fairly down the middle, if you like the over for either one of these men, you might be better served playing the over 98.5 total rushing yards for the Broncos for the game instead.
Anderson has been the hotter back of late, as he has rushed for at least 72 yards in four straight games dating back to the regular season.
Still, Hillman led the team in carries and in yards this year, and though he's had a rough go of it in the playoffs with a total of just 54 yards, Gary Kubiak has still trusted him with 27 carries against Anderson's 31.
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