Although there has not been much action on the total as of yet, there is sure to be some betting on it leading up to the Super Bowl. Right now, the total has not received much action simply because the status of one of the game’s most important players is up in the air. Rob Gronkowski is considered questionable after suffering a concussion in the AFC Championship Game against Jacksonville, and it is unclear whether or not he will play. It is likely that he is probable to play considering the magnitude of the game, but you never know when it comes to concussions.
Watch the Super Bowl live on Sunday, February 4, 2018, at 6:30 p.m. ET at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, Minnesota. This game will be broadcast on NBC.
Super Bowl LII Odds at BookMaker.eu
Patriots -4.5 -105
Eagles +4.5 -115
Over/Under 48
Odds Analysis
When the initial Super Bowl line came out, the first bit of action was on the under. Pretty much across the board, the total was opened at 48 points and quickly dipped down to 47. As the week progressed, the total slowly rose and got back to 48 at virtually every shop over the weekend. Some of the shops that cater to squares have even moved the line to 48.5 as those players love points and are typically betting on the over.
Factors to consider for the under
Of course, the key here is the health of Gronkowski. He is Tom Brady’s favorite weapon, and he is able to exploit any defense he faces because of his skillset. When he is healthy, the offense opens up and is able to do whatever it wants because of the mismatches that Gronk creates. If he doesn’t play, the offense is not as versatile and the playbook becomes a little limited.
Something else to keep in mind is the play of Philadelphia’s defense. The Eagles have been great on defense during the postseason, allowing just 17 points in their two playoff games. They have an incredible defensive line that is able to control the line of scrimmage, with Fletcher Cox being one of the stars of the NFL.
New England has not been able to run the ball well this season. Although Dion Lewis has proven to be a good running back, the offensive line is not good at creating holes for him, or any other back, to run through. It’s hard to imagine the Patriots will be able to run on the Eagles after failing to run on the Jaguars last week.
Factors to consider for the over
Tom Brady. Brady continues to be a wizard in the postseason. This team has not had a solid running back since Corey Dillon retired over a decade ago, but that hasn’t stopped Brady from finding repeated success in the playoffs. He torched Tennessee in the Divisional Round of the playoffs and was at his best against Jacksonville, moving the ball methodically against the best set of cornerbacks in the NFL.
He might have to throw the ball all over the place if New England’s defense continues to have a hard time stopping opponents. The Patriots run defense has not been great this season, and the Pats allowed the Jaguars to outgain them during last week’s AFC Championship Game.
Predicting the movement
Although Gronk is likely to be cleared, I think the total will be bet down closer to kickoff. The Eagles have an elite defense and the Patriots aren’t going to let any team score a ton of points against them. Nick Foles has been better than expected, but he is not the type of quarterback to light up an opposing defense. Philly knows it’s best chance to win the game is to run the ball and grind the clock down. That will lead to the under closing at 46 or 47.
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