Let the waiting begin. The two weeks between Championship Sunday and Super Bowl Sunday allow the two combatants so size up their opponent and get overly prepared for the Big Game. It also allows bettors to handicap the teams in an effort to make the correct wager that will put extra coin in their pocket. The New England Patriots were a favorite to be here. The Atlanta Falcons were not. That’s why the line opened at Pats -3 and 32 of the previous 50 favorites have won the Super Bowl.
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Super Bowl Odds at BookMaker.eu
Atlanta Falcons +3
New England Patriots -3
Over/Under 58.5
Odds Analysis
We’re still two weeks away from kickoff and the line hasn’t moved since opening at New England -3. The Pats have been a spread covering demon lately, going 8-1 ATS during their run of nine consecutive victories. Squares are backing the Patriots early and we’re likely to see some movement as we get closer to game time.
The total opened at a record 57.5 and has already spiked a point to its current 58.5. Just like the spread, we’ll see plenty of action on the over/under the weekend of the game and that could influence the number one way or the other.
We’ve seen the total close for the Super Bowl at 50.5 points or higher nine times and the under has gone 3-6 in those games. New England was involved in three of those games and each time the Pats and their opponent cashed the under, most recently in Super Bowl 46 when they fell 21-17 to the Giants with the total at 53.
Team and Coaching Playoff History
The Patriots own a permanent seat at the Super Bowl table as they make a record ninth appearance in the Big Game and their seventh with the tandem of Bill Belichick and Tom Brady. The success enjoyed by the franchise under the coach/quarterback duo has been unparalleled in NFL annals and the two are simply adding to their Hall of Fame resumés.
While playoff football and Super Bowl appearances have been rare for the Falcons, Dan Quinn is no stranger to the Big Game. Quinn was Seattle’s defensive coordinator when the Seahawks went to back-to-back Super Bowls following the 2014 and 2015 seasons. His team lassoed Peyton Manning in a 43-8 win over the Broncos in Super Bowl 48 and lost to the Patriots the following year, 28-24, in what may have been the most exciting of all Super Bowl matchups.
But Atlanta’s experience on the field does not compare to what the Pats have. New England made it to the conference championship or beyond for the sixth consecutive season and has participated in the postseason in nine straight years and 13 of the past 14. The Pats missed the playoffs in 2008 playing the year without Brady, who sustained a knee injury in the season opener.
Brady has led the Pats to the playoffs in all but one of 14 seasons as the regular starter, that’s not counting his rookie season when he threw just three passes, and 2008. But the Patriots are more than Brady. Belichick has assembled the league’s most disciplined team and the Pats just don’t beat themselves.
Atlanta knew it had to upgrade on the defensive side of the football last offseason and the draft addressed those concerns. Now, the Falcons are headed to the Super Bowl relying on several rookies on that side of the ball to try and stop Brady and his efficient offense. No matter the outcome, the Falcons have to consider this season a smashing success and they have an opportunity to wipe their name off the list of teams that have not won a Super Bowl.
Recent Games of Note
The Patriots looked a little rusty when they beat the Texans in the Divisional Round. The week off prior to that game could have had something to do with that, but the Pats were able to pull away in the second half and turn their 17-13 halftime edge into a 34-16 cover win. And that was against the best overall defense in the NFL.
New England struck again in the AFC Championship, holding the explosive Pittsburgh offense in check while racking up the points against a Steelers team that had won nine straight going in. It showed us just how balanced the Pats are, being able to penetrate Houston’s tough defense one week and slow down some of the top play makers in the league the next week.
Atlanta led the NFL in scoring and managed at least 33 points over its last six games while topping the 40-point mark three times, including a high of 44 during that stretch in the NFC Championship. The Falcons are a well-balanced offensive team averaging 457 yards passing and 100 yards rushing this postseason while scoring 40 points a game. The dangerous weapon is Julio Jones, who could give the Pats’ diminutive secondary problems with his height and ability to go after balls. He destroyed the Packers and his foot is apparently feeling much better.
The teams haven’t played since the 2013 season when the Pats held on for a 30-23 victory in the Georgia Dome. Brady threw for 316 yards and a pair of touchdowns while Ryan tossed 54 passes for 421 yards and two scores. The faces have changed, particularly on defense, but Brady is 4-0 in his career against Atlanta and his team has covered the spread each time.
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