The big game goes down this Sunday with Tom Brady and the New England Patriots set to square off against Matt Ryan and the Atlanta Falcons. The Hoodie and Brady have already participated in this event seven times as head coach and quarterback. Dan Quinn and Matt Ryan will be making their inaugural appearances. That no doubt gives the Patriots the leg up in experience for Super Bowl LI, but will it be enough to get past a feisty cast of Falcons?
New England Patriots vs. Atlanta Falcons
Date and Time: Sunday, February 5, 2017, 6:30 p.m. ET
Location: NRG Stadium, Houston, TX
Super Bowl LI Odds at BookMaker.eu: Patriots -3, 58.5
Patriots vs. Falcons TV Coverage: FOX
Odds Analysis
The betting line for Super Bowl LI opened at -3 in favor of the Patriots and still remains a week after being exposed to the betting public. There has however been a change in the amount of juice offered up to back each side. New England can now be added to your big game portfolio at a -105 discount even though 70+ percent of the tickets written are backing the favored Patriots. That means some big money is riding the Falcons forcing those that want to back them to pay -115 vig. That can ultimately change as the game gets closer to kick-off.
It’s been all one way traffic when it comes to the total. Better than 76 percent of the total tickets written expect a high scorer to play out on Sunday. BookMaker.eu was one of the first offshore sportsbooks to bump the total up to 58.5 after opening it up at 57.5. Since then, numerous other sportsbooks have followed suit. It still hasn’t stopped total bettors from hammering the over, so it’s safe to say all those booking bets on Sunday will hope for a fluky under cash.
Team and Coaching Playoff History
Bill Belichick and Tom Brady will be out to add to their NFL Hall of Fame resumes on Sunday when they partake in the Super Bowl for a seventh time. New England as a franchise will be making its ninth overall appearance in the big game, a Super bowl record.
The Patriots punched their ticket to the Super Bowl by ousting both Houston and Pittsburgh in the Divisional and Championship rounds respectively. The game against the Steelers marked the sixth straight time New England partook in the AFC Championship Game. The Brady Bunch has qualified for the playoffs in nine straight seasons, and no doubt has a leg up over the Falcons when it comes to experience.
Atlanta last qualified for the playoffs back in 2013 when it took Seattle down in the Divisional Round, and then fell in a closely fought game against San Francisco. Neither of those two games had Dan Quinn at the helm, but this won’t be the Falcons head coach’s first appearance in the big game.
If you remember, Quinn was the orchestrator of the “Legion of Boom” defense that went on to embarrass the Denver Broncos in Super Bowl 48, and then fall to New England the following season in one of the biggest head scratching late game decisions ever to go down in Super Bowl history. He’s 2-0 straight up and against the spread in the playoffs as a head coach after his squad throttled both Seattle and Green Bay.
Recent Games of Note
These teams last ran up against one another back in the 2013 regular season. Matty Ice gouged the Pats’ secondary for 421 yards and a couple touchdowns, while Brady went for 316 yards and two touchdowns himself. Both Stephen Gostkowski and Matt Bryant successfully converted all six of their combined field goal attempts, and the offenses combined for over 900 yards of total offense. New England won and covered that game as well, pulling out the 30-23 outright win as 3 point underdogs with the 53 combined points going over the 49 point closing total.
The Pats and Falcons each squared off against five of the same teams this season. Those being the Denver Broncos, Seattle Seahawks, Arizona Cardinals, Los Angeles Rams and San Francisco 49ers. New England went 4-1 straight up and against the spread with the lone defeat coming in the form of a 31-24 home loss to the Seahawks. Atlanta went into Sports Authority Field and also handed the Broncos a loss. It also whipped up on Arizona, San Francisco and Los Angeles and split a pair against Seattle falling in front of the 12th Man 26-24 but avenging that loss in the playoffs by thrashing Quinn’s former team 36-20 as 6.5 point favorites.
New England’s four wins came by an average of 11 points per game. Atlanta secured its five wins by an average of 19.6 points per game. Things that make you go hmmmmm…
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