The Patriots lead the all-time series between the two teams, 7-6. However, the last meeting was back in 2013. The Patriots won the game 30-23 as the home team. This game pits the top scoring offense this season, the Falcons (33.9), versus the top scoring defense, the Patriots (15.6). This has occurred in the Super Bowl on six previous occasions, the team that lead the NFL in defense won five of those six games. The lone No. 1 offense to win was the 1989 San Francisco 49ers led by Joe Montana. He tossed five touchdown passes, including three to Jerry Rice, as the 49ers dropped the Denver Broncos 55-10. The last match-up between the top scoring offense and defense was Super Bowl XLVIII when the top ranked Seattle Seahawks defense shut down the top ranked Denver Broncos offense, with the Seahawks blowing out the Broncos 43-8. Regardless, this showdown will make for what should be an interesting game with many headlines to talk about and wager on.
Kickoff for Super Bowl LI is set forSunday, February 5, 2017, at6:30 p.m. ETat NRG Stadium.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Atlanta Falcons +3 .
New England Patriots -3
Over/Under 57.5
Odds Analysis
This game opened with the largest total, 57.5, in the history of the Super Bowl. The previous high was, 57, in Super Bowl XLIV when the New Orleans Saints defeated the Indianapolis Colts, 31-17, failing to cover the total. So far this post season, the over had paid off in seven of 10 games played.
Interestingly, only eight of the previous 50 Super Bowls have seen the teams combine for more than 58 points, with the latest game to reach that threshold coming in XLVII when the Baltimore Ravens beat the San Francisco 49ers 34-31. Concerning the total, this is only the 10th time a total has reached at least 50 points. Only three of those previous games ended up going over the total, but, only one failed to cover a 6-point teaser.
This contest pits the No. 1 and 4 offenses in the NFL this season. Each team has played to the over in its last three games (post and regular season). As a matter of fact the Falcons have played in 15 games to eclipse the total this season out of 18 played. Only two games went under for the Falcons. Early money came in on the over and pushed the total to 58.5. We fully expect the sharps to take a hard look at the under. Bill Belichick understands that to keep the Falcons offense off kilter, the easiest thing to do is to keep the Falcons offense off of the field. That means running the ball with LeGarrette Blount and chewing clock.
Injury Report
Currently there are no key injuries for the team’s entering the contest.
Matchup to Watch - The Matts
The key matchup to watch in this game is going to be between Matt Ryan and Matt Patricia. Of all the games that the Falcons lost this season, one truly can be attributed to the offense struggling, the Falcons Week 10 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles. In that game, Ryan was battered by the Eagles’ pass rush and was not able to effectively utilize his many weapons. Julio Jones had a monster game, he caught 10 passes for 135 yards, but he was the only player to make an impact on offense that day. Time of possession was a factor as the Eagles churned yards on the ground and ate time off of the clock. But the biggest factor was the blitzing schemes of the Eagles on third down. Players were coming at Ryan from every imaginable angle.
Patricia has corners that can blitz and is adept at changing from a 3-4 front to a 4-3 during a game. Don’t forget that Beilichick earned his way into the driver’s seat as a defensive coach. They are going to come up with a game plan to bring pressure and confuse Ryan. Just last week, the Patriots shut down the Steelers run game and that offensive line full of road graders. Let’s not forget that the Falcons offensive coordinator is essentially pulling double duty this these next two weeks. A lot prep is going to fall into the lap of Ryan.
Free ATS Pick
The Patriots have won every way imaginable. They have pounded the rock and opponents into submission and have aired it out gutting defenses. They have won in slugfests, shootouts and blowouts. The Pats have won with offense and with defense. Shoot, they have even won with three different quarterbacks this season. Better yet, they made Belichick smile, he loves this group of players and he is not going let them down. This team will be supremely prepared.
The Patriots have the offense to hang with the Falcons if this game becomes a shootout. The offense is balanced, something the Green Bay Packers were not, and the ‘Pats have a solid and sound defense. The Patriots also have Tom Brady. The only loss this season with Brady at quarterback was against a good Seattle Seahawks defense. They dropped that game 31-24 and it was probably the worst defense performance of the season for the ‘Pats. That game saw Brady throw his first interception of the season. But, in the playoffs, against the Houston Texans, the Patriots overcame two Brady interceptions to man-handle the Texans.
Sure, the Falcons’ defense has improved nightly throughout the season, but that unit is not as good Seahawks or Texans. Plus, the Falcons still struggles against the run. That wasn’t an issue when the Dirty Birds played the Packers, well, because the Packers can’t run the ball. Now, the Falcons get to face Blount, a back who literally carried a team on his back for an 18-yard scamper last week. Not to mention, the Patriots also have change of pace backs - Dion Lewis and James White - that can both catch the ball out of the backfield.
NFL Odds: Patriots 31, Falcons 24
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