Kickoff for Super Bow LI, between the Atlanta Falcons and the New England Patriots is set forSunday, February 5, 2017, at6:30 p.m. ETat NRG Stadium. It’s been more than a week since the teams have played and they have already been through the circus that is media day. Now it’s time to get back on schedule and routine. Both head coaches have experience handling this situation as they squared off against each other two years ago.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Atlanta Falcons +3
New England Patriots -3
Over/Under 58.5
The storyline so far has been that the Patriots are the favorites and no one seems to know how they will stop Julio Jones and the Falcons’ offense. Everyone expects this game to go over the total with the No. 1 and 3 scoring offenses participating in the game.
Both teams destroyed its opponent in its respective Conference Championship game as they did opponents during the regular season. Both teams did so in multiple ways on offense. The Falcons set a league record with 13 receivers catching touchdown passes. Meanwhile, the Patriots had at least six players score multiple touchdowns in a game and even had a game with five different players scoring touchdowns. The point is, both of these teams can move the ball and score in a variety of ways.
For the Falcons offense to keep humming along, the pressure falls on the offensive line. Sure, some may say it is Kyle shanahan’s play calling or Matt Ryan’s ability to adjust at the line of scrimmage, that all is true, but it will come down to execution, and the line must execute. A point of concern is the lingering ankle injury to Alex Mack. Outside of that, this unit does possess some advantages. The Falcons utilize a run-zone scheme. This is the type of scheme that gives the Patriots defense the most fits. It also takes advantage of the tremendous team speed the Falcons possess.
The Dirty Birds are going to try to make a living on the edges against the Patriots. Both Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman have great speed and burst. They will look for openings while the offensive line slants and make decisive cuts. While the Patriots do not have the same team speed on defense, expect them to be prepared for this and make it a point of emphasis to shut down the run. Don’t expect the Falcons to challenge the Patriots up the middle, which is the strength of its defense, that was stellar against the run this season. For Patriots fans expecting the team to do what the team did against the Steelers run game, don’t. Different styles of play and attack, that require different styles of defense. Versus the Steelers the Pats could two-gap and be patient in tracking the running back. Versus the Falcons zone scheme, each gap will need to be fit. It will take discipline and sure tackling for the Patriots to find success stopping the run; the two very things that are a hall mark of a Belichick defense.
As far as the pass game goes, the challenge is not about getting the ball to Julio Jones, but about Matt Ryan making the correct pre-snap read. Once again though, the line is important here. The unit graded out well per Pro Football Focus, but its strength was run blocking, the pass blocking isn’t great, but is good. The Patriots defensive line does not generate a ton of pressure, but when they do, it comes on well disguised plays. Ryan is going to have to get that figured out pre-snap and also avoid hands going up in the air to knock the ball down. Malcolm Butler will be the primary cover guy for the Pats on Jones, but in reality, it is going to be a team effort all within the scheme of the defense.
Ryan has done a great job all season of hitting his receivers in motion, allowing them to use their speed and get a lot of yards after the catch. This is going to be critical in this game. The Patriots may be the best tackling team in the NFL and always seem to be lined up in the correct spot. Stopping the Falcons from getting big plays on YAC is one way to slow this offense down. No team in the NFL gave up fewer big-play touchdowns this season than the Patriots (no team scored more big-play touchdowns this season than the Falcons). The Pats made teams get into the red zone and then trenched in to keep opposing teams out of the end zone.
For the Patriots offense to keep trucking along, once again we look at the offensive line. Whether it is the pass game with Tom Brady or the run game with LeGarrette Blount, James White and Dion Lewis, the line is going to have play fundamentally sound. Each game is different for this offense, it could bring an air raid game or a pound the ground. The slot could be the primary weapon, a back out of the backfield or even the tight end. The team may come out two-wide or three-wide, one back and tight end or two back. The genuis of this offense is its flexibility and ability to get teams into a defensive scheme it can take advantage of. The Falcons have not been tested on the ground as of late. With early and commanding leads, its opponents have been forced to abandon the run. Even still, the team gave up yardage. The young players in the defensive backfield fly around and hit hard. They need to keep their emotions in check and make sure to play sound technical football.
The biggest challenge is going to be getting pressure on Tom Brady. It may not necessarily mean forcing him out of the pocket. Versus Pittsburgh he utilized moving out of the pocket to open passing lanes and give his receivers time to get open. It is more about the pressure and rattling Brady, getting in his face and hitting him. In the playoffs the Falcons have blitzed twice as much as the team did in the regular season. The unit has the 2016 NFL sack leader in Vic Beasley. However, he finished the season in the middle of the pack for defensive lineman in pressure caused. What he did do well was finish when he got pressure, at the highest rate of any player this season. Marcus Cannon is going to have his hands full with Beasley and this could be one one the premier one-on-one matchups of the game.
Interesting to note, no team wants distractions heading into its biggest game of the year. Yet, the Falcons seem to have something new pop up every day. Whether it is Shanahan’s not so secret new job, him losing his backpack with the game plan in it or Freeman’s agent angling for a new deal and publicly expressing his dissatisfaction, these are not things a team, particularly a young team needs or wants. This is a business trip and teams need to stay focused. Maybe that is why Belichick wore a suit to media day and the Patriots players talked about keeping focus and distractions to a minimum.
One hot prop bet is the coin flip. The Patriots usually call heads, and when the team wins, Belichick usually defers. It will be interesting to see what he does this game if the Patriots win the flip. The Pats allowed only one passing touchdown in the first quarter all season, best in the NFL. So there is a reason to defer if the coin flip is won. However, the Falcons love getting the ball first. The team led the NFL this season in first quarter points scored and have scored on its first drive in the past eight games. There is no better way to limit an offense than to limit its possessions.
BookMaker offers play-by-play betting odds for live sporting events every day! The user-friendly wagering interface on your smartphone provides an easy way to place bets on the go. Mobile betting lines are updated by the minute, so click here to start gambling on thrilling live action at BookMaker Sportsbook!
