The New England Patriots didn’t lead the NFL in scoring offense this season, but behind the play of Tom Brady following his four-game suspension at the beginning of the year, they were one of the most efficient teams. And there is no reason why that can’t continue into Super Bowl LI against an Atlanta Falcons defense that wasn’t the most stout, but did improve as the season went along. We’ll take a look at a few player props for the AFC Champions.
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Super Bowl 51 Odds at BookMaker.eu
Atlanta Falcons +3
New England Patriots -3
Over/Under 58.5
Total Receiving Yards for Danny Amendola
Over 23.5 +115
Under 23.5 -135
A late season ankle injury that kept him out of the final six regular season games pushed Amendola down the depth chart and allowed Chris Hogan to become one of Brady’s favorite targets. Amendola was held without a catch against Houston in the Divisional Round once he returned to the field, and had just 12 receiving yards on two receptions in the AFC Championship Game. And it’s not like Amendola was lighting it up before his injury. He combined for 40 receiving yards in three games before being put on the shelf and totaled more than 23 receiving yards in a game just five times in his 14 games (including playoffs).
The versatility of the New England’s offense has affected his production, but it’s also what could make over bettors at +115 a winner with this prop bet. He’s still a comfort blanket for Brady and had five catches for 48 yards in New England’s Super Bowl XLIX win over Seattle two years ago. And when Brady and the Pats offense is in need of a big play, Amendola is always there to provide it.
Total Receiving Yards for Martellus Bennett
Over 35.5 +100
Under 35.5 -120
Bennett had some big games and was the featured tight end after Rob Gronkowski went down. But sometimes there just aren’t enough footballs to go around and Bennett was the odd man out on the receiving end down the stretch. He averaged 43.8 receiving yards per game during the regular season, but exceeded 35 yards just once since Week 10 of the regular season.
Having a healthy Dion Lewis operating out of the backfield on passing downs will also take targets away from Bennett. Both Lewis and Bennett were targeted nine times during the first two playoff contests and Bennett would have had a higher number, much like he did during the first 10 games of the season when Lewis was still recuperating from his injury. The Pats want to establish the run game in order to keep the Falcons’ offense off the field, and that means fewer passes and opportunities for yards. The under looks like the best bet here.
Total Rushing Yards for LeGarrette Blount
Over 50.5 -115
Under 50.5 -115
Now this is an interesting prop bet. The Pats don’t run the ball a lot, but Blount is the primary ball-carrier on rushing downs. And as I mentioned above, New England desperately wants to establish some dominance on the ground to keep Matt Ryan and the Atlanta offense off the field. Blount will get his chances early to chew up the yards, but the Falcons have been good against the run in the postseason. Of course, playing with a lead has forced opponents to throw the football more, basically abandoning the run game in catch-up mode.
This game is expected to be much closer than the lopsided wins the Falcons laid on Seattle and Green Bay, and if everything goes according to plan for the Pats, Brady won’t have to throw the ball 45 times. There are plenty of variables that can affect this play, though. If New England isn’t successful running the football early, the short passing game becomes more of a priority to move the chains. And if the Pats fall behind, Brady will have to throw. Also, the return of Lewis took some carries away from Blount and he ran the ball just eight times against Houston in the Divisional Round. That will be a factor in the under cashing in this game.
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