The young Bucs look to regroup after a devastating loss last weekend when they let a 24-point lead evaporate. While Tampa Bay and top overall draft pick Jameis Winston is showing progress, the Buccaneers continue to make the same mistakes and the seat is getting warmer under coach Lovie Smith.
ODDS
Atlanta opened as a 7.5-point favorite with the total at 48. The Falcons failed to cover in each of their last three games while the Bucs are 2-0 ATS in their last two. The line was wagered to -7 while the total spiked to 49.
KEY INJURIES
Louis Murphy – Tore his right ACL last week and is done for the year, thinning Tampa Bay’s depth at the receiver spot. The team’s No. 3 wide out will be replaced by Donteea Dye in the lineup.
Leonard Hankerson – Suffered a hamstring injury against Tennessee and didn’t return to the game. His status is questionable for Sunday. Nick Williams is likely to see more snaps in the receiver rotation if Hankerson remains bothered by his injury.
William Moore – The Falcons starting safety left last week’s game in the first half with a groin injury and didn’t return. He was replaced in the secondary by Kemal Ishmael.
KEY MISMATCH
Atlanta’s commitment to the ground game under new coach Dan Quinn has paid off in a big way. And the success can be directly attributed to Devonta Freeman, who leads the NFL in rushing with 621 yards on 131 carries through seven games. The second-year back picked up his third consecutive 100-yard game of the season totaling 116 in a win at Tennessee last week. And that doesn’t count a 47-yard run that was called back by a penalty. He could become the first Falcons back since 1998 to rush for 100 yards in four straight games if he can dent the Bucs’ defense for triple-digits. Freeman now has 931 combined yards this season and 10 touchdowns to give the Falcons the kind of foundation they needed to go with a passing game that’s more susceptible to team’s like the Buccaneers trying to ugly up a game.
KEY STAT
29.8 – Tampa Bay’s points per game allowed. The Bucs are tied for last in the NFL and have surrendered 99 points combined in the past three games. Atlanta is fourth in the league in points scored averaging 27.6 per game.
BETTING ANGLE
The Bucs seemingly had this one in the bag. A 24-0 lead against a team that was a body blow away from falling into oblivion in the NFC. And they let it get away. The Redskins rallied to hand Tampa Bay its most painful loss of the Lovie Smith era and perhaps in some time. And the seat has to be getting warm for Smith, whose team was called for 16 penalties, sacked Kirk Cousins just once and couldn’t force a turnover from a quarterback who had thrown two picks in each of his teams last four losses. Linebacker Gerald McCoy said the Bucs “can’t get stuck here.” He meant they can’t let their last minute choke to the Redskins be the beginning of the end. Because if Cousins and one of the shakiest NFC teams could rally for the largest comeback in franchise history, imagine what Matt Ryan, Julio Jones and Devonta Freeman can do against the reeling Buccaneers.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
Offensively the Bucs looked good last week and Winston is progressing nicely. But Tampa Bay has been really bad stopping opponents from scoring. The Buccaneers are dead last in the NFL allowing nearly 30 points per game. They let a 24-point lead slip away last week and lost to the Redskins in the final minute. It was a crushing loss for a young team that hasn’t learned how to win yet. The Falcons continue to win even when they aren’t playing their best. Their offense struggled, but the defense came up big in an ugly 10-7 win at Tennessee last week, bouncing back from their only loss of the year. With Ryan throwing to Jones and Freeman running wild out of the backfield, the Falcons are a threat to expose a beleaguered Tampa Bay defense. Atlanta has the second-best run defense in the NFL and stopping Doug Martin is a priority. If successful, they’ll force Winston to beat them, and he’s just not ready to do that.
Atlanta 34, Tampa Bay 23
The NFL odds for this Sunday contest were first released by BookMaker and the Falcons were positioned as 7.5-point favorites with a total of 48. Now you can wager in-game while the action unfolds with BookMaker's live betting option.
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