Tampa Bay’s Jameis Winston looked like a different player in last week’s win over the Saints. The Bucs are hoping his development into a premiere quarterback in the NFL continues. The No. 1 pick in the draft will have to deal with J.J. Watt and the Texans front line if the Bucs want to match their win total from last season. The Texans are looking for some production out of their quarterback to get in the win column after the revolving door was opened.
ODDS
Houston hit the board as a 6.5-point favorite with the total posted at 41.5. Tampa Bay is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games against the AFC South and the Texans are in desperate need of a win. While the total is low, ineffective offenses give the under plenty of value.
KEY INJURIES
Austin Sefarian-Jenkins – Suffered a shoulder injury that could cost him several weeks, according to reports. He has emerged as a reliable weapon in the Bucs’ offense and is the second-leading receiver from his tight end spot. Brandon Myers and Luke Stocker are likely to see time in his absence.
Jeff Adams – Was carted off the field last week and diagnosed with a torn patellar tendon in his knee. He was filling in on the Texans’ offensive line with several other starters nursing injuries and his loss for the season will be a huge blow to the depth on that group.
KEY MISMATCH
Bucs defensive end Jacquies Smith is a pass rushing demon. Smith sacked Saints’ quarterback Drew Brees three times and forced two fumbles last week, helping preserve Tampa Bay’s first win of the season. He may have changed the course of the game with his second sack, because Brees got up shaking his throwing arm and never looked the same after that. Smith, who leads the NFL in sacks with four, and the rest of the Bucs D-line will face a Texans offensive front in disarray after the loss of Adams. Tackle Duane Brown sat out last week with a hand injury and is questionable while starting guard Xavier Su’a-Filo has yet to play while recovering from a preseason ankle injury.
KEY STAT
18.5 – The Texans’ points per game. It’s been a struggle for Houston to consistently put drives together and points on the board. The young Bucs defense held firm in limiting the Saints to 19 points last week.
BETTING ANGLE
Two weeks into the season, there isn’t a team in the AFC South with a winning record. The division remains wide open and the Texans can climb right back into the thick of the race with a win. It’s hard to talk playoffs so early in the year, but the postseason seems a distant possibility for a team that has displayed many flaws. But hold on, their chances aren’t so miniscule. According to ESPN’s football power index, the Texans have a 17 percent chance of making the playoffs despite their 0-2 start. That’s largely based on the strength of the Texans schedule the rest of the way. Arian Foster will return soon to bolster the run game, the offensive line will come together, and coach Bill O’Brien has had success developing quarterbacks in his system. Houston may not be a playoff contending team, but the situation in the AFC South gives them an opportunity.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
The Bucs did a number against an injured Brees and the Saints last week. They won’t be so lucky this time around. The Texans will have a healthy quarterback, be it Ryan Mallet or Brian Hoyer, and a game plan to expose the weaknesses in the Tampa Bay defense that made the Titans so effective in the opener. Houston’s defensive front will pressure Winston into making mistakes, similar to what he did in Week 1, and the Texans will take advantage. If Foster is back in the lineup, the Texans work their game plan more efficiently. This likely is a low-scoring affair with both teams still searching for an identity, but the Texans will rally around the home fans for a cover win.
Houston 24, Tampa Bay 13
The NFL odds for this Sunday contest were first released by BookMaker and the Texans were positioned as 6.5-point favorites with a total of 41.5. Now you can wager in-game while the action unfolds with BookMaker's live betting option.
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