For the 16th consecutive year the Miami Dolphins and Tampa Bay Buccaneers will battle for bragging rights in the state of Florida. Sorry Jags, you haven’t been around long enough. The Bucs won the last two and four of the last five preseason games at Sun Life Stadium while always playing in the shadow of the more established Dolphins.
ODDS
The Dolphins have lost four of their last five home preseason games to the Bucs and are just 4-11 ATS during the preseason under Joe Philbin. They opened as a 3.5-point favorite against their in-state rival with the total at 38.
QUARTERBACK ROTATION
Jameis Winston and the Tampa Bay offense was manhandled by the Browns last week, leaving us to believe the No. 1 overall pick will get at least one series against the in-state rivals. Coach Lovie Smith would like his starter to have more command of the offense and more reps with an offensive line that features two rookies heading into the opener. Third-stringer Seth Lobato, who did not play against Cleveland on Saturday, will get a majority of the reps. Lobato has completed 5 of 6 passes for 57 yards this preseason without a touchdown or interception.
If the preseason is any indication, Dolphins quarterback Ryan Tannehill is ready to have a big year. In limited snaps he completed 80.4 percent of his passes for 303 yards and three touchdowns in three games. So he’ll watch the final preseason game from the sidelines as backups Matt Moore, Josh Freeman and McLeod Bethel-Thompson get the snaps. Moore isn’t going anywhere and the other two have haven’t done much. There is some concern over what the offense would look like if Tannehill gets injured, so quality reps from Moore are essential. It’s likely he and Freeman split time under center against the Bucs.
COACHES' MOTIVATION
Dolphins coach Joe Philbin, a one-time prison guard, is known as a disciplinarian. Important December games are the hardest to win and the Dolphins haven’t won them the past two seasons. Miami’s back-to-back collapses certainly point to a lack of toughness and the coach said his team needs to be tougher mentally. Entering his fourth season in Miami, and still searching for his first winning record, Philbin knew something had to change. So he reduced the team’s practice load, he now starts every team meeting with music and he makes jokes. Things he had never done. With a three-year playoff drought under his watch and a roster loaded with talent, he knows what's at stake. “I hope it works,” the coach said about his makeover.
QUOTE TO NOTE
“There’s not much we did well, Jameis or any other position you bring up – coaching, all of it. But at the same time it’s only one game. We had a quick turnaround. We didn’t handle the week as well as we needed to. It’s as simple as that.” – Tampa Bay coach Lovie Smith on another short week before the final preseason game
POSITION BATTLE TO WATCH
The Dolphins have a good grip on their starters entering the final preseason game. There is, however, one exception. The team is still looking for a starter at cornerback opposite Brent Grimes. Jamar Taylor appeared to have a hold on the job until a quadriceps strain last week set him back. Brice McCain started in his place Saturday and by his own estimation was just “all right.” Thanks to a ferocious pass rush and limited reps, the two haven’t been tested that much during the preseason, with each allowing just one completion. Taylor had a pick in the second preseason game, which could be a tiebreaker in an otherwise close battle.
INJURIES
Bucs’ receiver Mike Evans will not play as he nurses a sore hamstring. Safety Chris Conte also has a hamstring problem that he’s been dealing with since the first week of camp and will likely be held out of action.
Dolphins starting center Mike Pouncey left in the first half Saturday with a knee injury and is to have an MRI. Returner and running back LaMichael James departed with a chest injury and cornerback Zack Bowman left with a thigh injury. All are doubtful to play against the Bucs.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
While the Dolphins are set at most of their positions and are just waiting for the regular season to start, the Bucs still have plenty of work ahead of them. An impressive win over the Bengals was followed by a dud against the Browns last week, leaving us wondering if Winston is ready to play at the NFL level. But it’s not all his fault. The O-line has holes, allowing 13 sacks in three exhibition games, and with a pair of rookies starting, the first-year players will experience growing pains. They should fare better against a Dolphins team with starters resting.
Tampa Bay 17, Miami 16
The NFL odds for this Thursday game were first available at BookMaker sportsbook. The Dolphins were pegged as 3.5-point chalk while the total opened at 38. Since this game can be seen by anyone with a TV, BookMaker will have a multitude of wagering options available for it. Outside of the normal lines, you can gamble on real-time odds and player props during the game. Live betting is open during every commercial break!
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