While both teams have struggled mightily this season, the winner is back in contention for the AFC South title. So they have that going for them. Houston is currently one game out of both the division lead and from having the NFL’s worst record, giving us a good idea of just how messed up the division is. The Texans have won five of the last six meetings going 5-1 ATS in that span.
ODDS
The uncertainty over Tennessee’s starting quarterback has kept the line and total off the board.
KEY INJURIES
Marcus Mariota – The Titans’ quarterback returned to practice this week with a brace on his left knee but his status for Sunday remains in question. He injured the knee two weeks ago on a low hit from a Miami defender and was inactive in the team’s loss last week. Zach Mettenberger started in his place against the Falcons.
Andy Gallik – Became the second Titans’ center injured in as many weeks and entered the league’s concussion protocol. He left his first NFL start last week after taking over for Brian Schwenke, who injured his ankle the week before. Joe Looney will likely get the start Sunday.
Arian Foster – Houston’s star running back was lost for the season with a torn right Achilles tendon suffered in last week’s game. The Texans plan to go with a running back by committee approach, splitting snaps between Alfred Blue, Chris Polk and Jonathan Grimes.
KEY MISMATCH
Tennessee’s Jurrell Casey has been a nightmare for opposing offenses since recording 10.5 sacks in a breakout 2013 season. That’s an incredible sack total for an interior lineman and a number that equaled J.J. Watt’s sack total from last year. Houston has shuffled its starting guard combination all season with five different players receiving starts at either position. Some of those players have done well, but moving tackles Jeff Adams and Derek Newton inside hasn’t worked out. Brandon Brooks could return after missing last week with an injury, but whoever lines up at the other guard spot against Casey could be overmatched. Casey is a different type of pass rusher than Ndamukong Suh, but Suh got his first two sacks of the year against Houston last week in a physically dominating performance. He doesn’t receive the hype Suh does, but Casey is more than capable of wrecking the Texans’ game plan.
KEY STAT
19.8 – Tennessee’s points per game. The Titans rank 30th in the NFL in scoring, ahead of only San Francisco and St. Louis, and scored just 30 points combined in their last three games. The Texans give up 28.4 points per game to rank 28th in the league.
BETTING ANGLE
Houston’s misery that’s been the 2015 season hit a high last week. Foster was lost for the season with an Achilles injury, backup quarterback Ryan Mallett was cut for missing a flight and a dreadful first half performance were among the lowlights. The Texans will try to rebound quickly and generate something positive by adding to their recent success against the Titans. Houston fell behind Miami 21-0 after one quarter and 41-0 at halftime. Mallett paid his own way to South Florida after missing the team’s charter flight and was released Tuesday. The Texans have a chance to put that drama behind them – at least for one week – with another win over Tennessee. Houston has won five of the past six meetings, going 5-1 ATS, and three straight on their own field.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
The quarterback carousel that played out in Texans’ camp since the start of training camp is over thanks to Mallett. The club is now all Brian Hoyer’s, and I’m not sure that’s such a good thing. Houston has had to digest plenty this past week and the players will enjoy getting back on the field just to put the distractions behind them. While Houston is a disappointment this season, the Titans were expected to have some growing pains. And they have. It would be wise for Tennessee to sit Mariota and not risk further damage since the season isn’t headed anywhere. Even with the No. 2 overall pick under center the offense has stumbled and the inability of the Titans to hold onto second half leads has cost them. Expect the Texans to rise up and have a much better showing defensively than last week. Blue is capable of handling the workload out of the backfield and the Texans will get a home victory, something their used to against Tennessee.
Houston 26, Tennessee 17
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