A bevy of proposition bet offerings are listed for Super Bowl LI with the New England Patriots set to square off against the Atlanta Falcons. For the purpose of this prop piece, we’ll be concentrating on quarterbacks Tom Brady and Matt Ryan with their interception, touchdown and passing yardage props put under the microscope. With the big game offering up the highest point total in Super Bowl history, it’s likely each of these gunslingers has big showings.
New England Patriots vs. Atlanta Falcons
Date and Time: Sunday, February 5, 2017, 6:30 p.m. ET
Location: NRG Stadium, Houston, TX
Super Bowl Odds at BookMaker.eu: Patriots -3, O/U 58.5
Super Bowl LI TV Coverage: FOX
Total Pass Interceptions
Tom Brady ov0.5 +120
Tom Brady un0.5 -140
Brady hadn’t thrown an interception in three straight games leading up to the Patriots Division Round tilt with the Texans. He ended up throwing a pair in that game off deflections with Houston constantly harassing him. Atlanta hardly gets to opposing gunslingers at the rate of the Texans, and New England sports one of the best offensive lines, in terms of protection, in the business. I don’t foresee him getting picked off in this one, so it makes sense the under is heavily juiced.
Matt Ryan ov0.5 +105
Matt Ryan un0.5 -125
The Falcons QB1 threw a bulk of his interceptions the first half of the regular season with four. Since then, he’s only been picked off three times and enters Super Bowl Sunday having not thrown an errant pass in six straight games. He also finished with an average QB rating of 132.9 over that stretch. Still, this is his first Super Bowl appearance so nerves could play a role early on. Pair that with Bill Belichick having a couple weeks to game plan, and that could equate to an early interception.
Total Passing Yards
Tom Brady ov297.5 +110
Tom Brady un297.5 -130
The Falcons defense ranks out at No. 27 with it conceding an average of 263.5 passing yards per game. That number swelled to 272.3 yards over its last three games after allowing Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers to light them up. Tom Brady is calm as a cucumber in the pocket, and with the limited amount of pressure he’s likely to see, he should have ample time to survey the field. That said, the Hoodie won’t want to get into a shootout with the Falcons. While he’ll no doubt unleash Brady when the timing calls for it, I expect a heavy dose of the running game to eat into his opportunity to surpass this number.
Matt Ryan ov320.5 -120
Matt Ryan un320.5 +100
With Matty Ice exceeding this number in each of his last three outings, his passing prop currently has -120 juice supporting the over. The betting public is buying in to him building off those efforts and landing a big number upon the Patriots’ heads. If you truly believe that, you’ve got another thing coming. The Patriots rank No. 14 defending the pass in allowing just 239.8 yards per game, and though Big Ben just lit the unit up for 314 yards, a bulk of that yardage was gained in garbage time with New England allowing Pittsburgh to get what it wanted between the 20s. I’m not as bullish on Ryan lighting the Patriots up through the air as this prop line suggests.
Total Touchdown Passes
Tom Brady ov2.5 +105
Tom Brady un2.5 -125
With the Falcons giving up an average of 25.4 points per game, the Patriots are going to get to pick their poison in this one. Atlanta conceded 31 passing touchdowns in the regular season, and another five in both playoff games combined. The problem with expecting Brady to surpass this number is the fact that Atlanta also gave up 15 rushing touchdowns. With New England possessing a spoil of riches in the backfield, goal-to-go situations could limit the chances of Brady surpassing this number.
Matt Ryan ov2.5 +100
Matt Ryan un2.5 -120
New England gave up a grand total of six rushing touchdowns throughout the regular season, and only one in the postseason. Atlanta ranked No. 3 in rushing touchdowns in the regular season, and went for three more in the playoffs. The Falcons will no doubt test the waters on the ground since it’s a part of their “MO,” but a bulk of their scoring is likely to come through the air either on long range strikes or dump-offs and screens to their talented duo out of the backfield. If forced to take a position on this prop, I’d lean towards Matty Ice going for three tuddies even though New England’s conceded a grand total of 23 passing touchdowns through 18 overall games.
Fantasy Bet H2H
Tom Brady -2 -115
Matt Ryan +2 -115
It’s tough to call which of these quarterbacks gets the best of the other from a fantasy perspective. Each has a loaded cast of characters to get the ball to, and with the total locked in near 60 combined points, some major fantasy points are going to be accrued in this matchup. That said, I believe it makes more sense to take the 2 points with Ryan than to lay ‘em with Brady. The Patriots will be able to score by land or by air, while it’s going to be much tougher for Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman to snake points away from Ryan with the Patriots tough to score upon on the ground. That leaves it in the hands of Matty Ice more times than not, and when you’re wagering on a fantasy H2H match-up, you want us many chances as possible to accrue points.
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