The Dolphins will attempt to make up some ground in the AFC East on Thursday Night Football when they battle a New England team that will look to keep its perfect mark intact in front of a nationally televised audience. Miami has looked great since interim head coach Dan Campbell took over, but his squad will now oppose a +.500 opponent for the first time since upper management decided to make a coaching change.
It’s really tough to decipher how the Patriots will go about moving the ball in this one. Miami was wretched defending the rush going into the bye, but since coming out of it, Ndamukong Suh and company have conceded a grand total of 134 rushing yards to the Titans and Texans. However, you must take into account how quickly Miami got ahead on the scoreboard forcing their opponent to abandon the rush almost immediately.
New England displayed its potent aerial attack last week knowing full well it wasn’t going to be able to do much damage against the Jets’ ferocious run defense. Even though New York also ranked top 5 in pass defense, Tom Brady was still able to throw for 355 yards and 2 touchdowns without an interception with his favorite target being none other than Rob Gronkowski.
Miami has been better at defending the pass in ranking No. 14 than the run where they check in at No. 30, so it’s very likely Bill Belichick kicks the tires on Dion Lewis – if healthy - and LeGarrette Blount. That could take away from Brady’s overall fantasy output. Miami has been tough on opposing quarterbacks with it allowing just 17.8 fantasy points per game – 3.9 points less than league average – and Brady hasn’t had one of his quintessential blow up games against the Fins in quite some time.
Ryan Tannehill enters this matchup coming off one of the best performances of his young career. Though he threw for only 282 yards against the Texans, he helped his fantasy backers out in a big way by throwing for 4 touchdowns and no interceptions. When the dust cleared, he ended up with a 158.3 QB rating which marked the second time this season he posted a 100+ QB rating.
Provided he’s able to get ample protection from his front wall against a NE defense that’s already tallied 21 sacks, Tanny should be able to make some hay against a Patriots defense giving up an average of 248.5 passing yards per game at 6.5 yards per pass.
However, the new regime has shown more of a penchant for giving Lamer Miller extra work in running him 33 times the last two games. Miller was called upon a grand total of 37 times in the Dolphins first four games!
With all the unknowns of how each offense will look to attack the opposing defense, I can’t help but take Tannehill plus the points in this fantasy H2H matchup. Should the Patriots look to the ground more, Brady’s fantasy output will suffer. If New England gets out to a big lead, Miami will be forced to look to the air ultimately giving Tannehill more chances at accumulating fantasy goodness.
FANTASY H2H MATCHUP PICK: Ryan Tannehill
Off a fantastic fantasy showing last week against the Jets in which he reeled in 11 receptions on 16 targets for 108 yards and a touchdown, Rob Gronkowski looks to have another solid matchup in front of him against the Dolphins.
Miami has either been really good or really bad defending the tight end this season. Against teams that had a viable pass catcher at the position, the Fins have given up an average of 8 receptions, 83.7 yards and 0.7 touchdowns. Against teams that had no stand out at the position, Miami didn’t allow a single reception.
It’s safe to say Gronk is a standout at the position, and with that, he should put forth yet another impressive stat tally against this defense. Only two teams have held him out of the end zone this season. Dallas ranks No. 8 defending tight ends, while Jacksonville is a bit worse but still better than league average. Miami is on par with the Jaguars defending the position, but has been exploited by some of the premiere tight ends in the league.
Let’s call it 85+ yards and 8+ receptions for the Pro Bowler who turned a grand total of 7 receptions into 136 yards and 2 touchdowns against Miami last season with 96 of those yards coming when they hosted the Dolphins at home in the second meeting of 2014.
Along with full game, halftime and live wagering, Fantasy H2H matchups offer another exciting way to wager on the games throughout the 2015 NFL season. With limits as high as $500 per matchup, you can put your fantasy knowledge to use and come out a real winner!
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