The Baltimore Ravens took a major step back last season mostly due to mass injuries to key personnel. The Buffalo Bills did as well which came as quite the surprise with Rex Ryan brought in to turn the defense into a well-oiled killing machine instead of the middle of the road stop unit it ended up being. Each has much to prove in this Week 1 clash with both squads looking to quickly turn the page on last season.
Watch this regular season Week 1 matchup live on Sunday, September 11, 2016, at 1:00 p.m. ET at M&T Bank Stadium.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Buffalo Bills +3
Baltimore Ravens -3
Over/Under 44.5
Odds Analysis
The betting line for this non-divisional AFC tilt finds the Ravens installed by three with the vig now sitting at -120. It opened at -3 +100, and though better than 63 percent of the spread bets currently reside with John Harbaugh’s Ravens, BookMaker has been remiss to bump the line up from the standard amount given for home field advantage. It’s likely to stay the course up until kickoff.
While the Ravens ranked amongst the bottom third of the league in scoring offense last season, the Bills were owners of the AFC’s No. 6 ranked scoring offense and No. 12 overall. That had much to do with Tyrod Taylor busting out, and he now has a presumably healthy Sammy Watkins to get the pigskin to. The total for this game originally opened at 43 but has since been bet up to 44.5 with over 63 percent of the tickets riding the over. It’s possible this number isn’t done climbing.
Injury Report
Aaron Williams – The Bills aren’t very deep in the secondary. The unit allowed 248.2 passing yards per game last season (No. 19), so it will need Aaron Williams on the field to combat a Ravens passing game that added deep threat Mike Williams to the mix in the offseason. He’s currently listed as probable with concussion-like symptoms.
Elvis Dumervil – Even though he ranks third in sacks accrued since entering the league back in 2006, the Ravens are in no hurry to rush their veteran sack master back into the lineup. He came off the PUP list back on August 22, but is yet to take a single snap in practice. That’s raised some major red flags for his availability for this one. The more time Tyrod has to sit back and find his receivers in the pocket, the tougher it’s going to be for the Ravens defense to get off the field.
Player to Watch
All eyes will be on Tyrod Taylor and the Bills offense. A back-up for a number of years on Baltimore, Taylor burst onto the scene in his first full season running the Bills’ offensive attack. He passed for 3035 yards and completed nearly 64 percent of his passes to end up with a 99.4 QB rating. He also proved to be a dual threat ranking second on the team in the rushing department with 568 yards and four touchdowns.
Most important, he was extremely efficient in throwing for 20 touchdowns and just six interceptions. The Bills led the league in running the football in 2015, and will likely look to run the ball down opponent’s throats again this season. If that turns out to be the case, Taylor could be in for an even bigger season provided he and Watkins both stay healthy.
Free ATS Pick
Baltimore is an extremely young team entering 2016 while the veterans have the feel of being held together with Krazy Glue and duct tape. Joe Flacco isn’t the spring chicken he once was and is returning from a major knee injury. While he has a solid duo of receivers to get the ball to in Kamar Aiken and Williams, the Bills secondary is pretty darn good and one that should be able to handle this limited attack.
Defensively, the Ravens should do a good job of containing the Bills on the ground, but the wild card here is Tyrod who I seriously foresee taking yet another big step forward in 2016. Look for his scrambling abilities to keep Baltimore’s defense on its heels, and for him to come up with a couple big plays that allows Buffalo to gain some separation on the scoreboard.
Baltimore has been a wretched investment at home in covering just one of its last 11 games (5-6 SU), while the Bills have been a moneymaker in their last 11 Week 1 games going 9-2 ATS. I expect each of those trends to continue.
NFL Odds: Bills 24, Ravens 20
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