Denver will play host with a new look offense following Peyton Manning’s retirement. The Broncos will get their first regular season looks at starter Trevor Siemian under center, but the team will once again be leaning on a dominant defense while the Panthers’ boast a potentially stronger offense with Kelvin Benjamin back and healthy.
This contest in Week 1 of the regular season will go down Thursday, September 8, 2016, at 8:30 p.m. ET at Sports Authority Field.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Carolina Panthers -3
Denver Broncos +3
Over/Under 41.5
Odds Analysis
We’ve already seen the spread shift sharply in the favor of the visiting Panthers after opening in favor of the home team. The total, meanwhile has trended downward a couple points since opening. That’s no surprise as both these defenses are strong and a low scoring affair is likely.
This series isn’t a particularly illustrious one aside from last season’s Super Bowl matchup. The Broncos got the better of that one and the total was suppressed in the 24-10 final. That defense is back, but look for Cam Newton to have a bit more success. Still, this series has tended to lean in the favor of the Broncos who are 3-1 lifetime against Carolina in the regular season.
Injury Report
Dean Marlowe – Marlowe was sidelined for the bulk of training camp and the preseason schedule due to a hamstring injury. The key defensive player was back in practice over the weekend, but was still limited. If he’s not able to go, there’s thought that Carolina may need to pick up a safety. If Marlowe is a no-go, it could diminish the Panthers’ defensive depth and open up some chances for Siemian.
Cody Latimer and Bennie Fowler – The two wide outs are the top contenders to be option No. 3 in the receiving game behind Demaryius Thomas and Emmanual Sanders both of whom should pull the bulk of the defense, leaving Siemian’s third option to be an important part of this passing attack. Both are questionable at the moment, Latimer with a knee issue and Fowler with an elbow injury. Latimer, however, seems to have avoided a much more serious injury after leaving Saturday’s preseason game and should be able to make the start if Fowler is out.
Matchup to Watch
The biggest mismatch leading to the Bronco’s commanding Super Bowl victory was the ability of their pass rush to penetrate the Panthers’ offensive line.
Von Miller destroyed Carolina’s line and he’s back to lead the Broncos once again against, essentially, the same line that the Panthers’ had a season ago.
While Miller is back, fellow defender Malik Jackson is not and that’s a significant loss. The defensive line is still really good, but the fact they were able to get to the Panthers’ line like they did was a surprise last year. The Panthers O-line was actually one of the better ones in the game, at least until taking on Denver.
So, while the same old offensive line against a still deep and strong Denver defensive pass rush looks like a mismatch of sorts, the results this time around could be very different.
Look for the Panthers to be well prepared after having all offseason to study the Bronco’s defense. There’s no doubt Newton’s struggles in the Super Bowl were directly related to the porous protection. So, the Broncos will need Miller to lead them again, but can they repeat their success or was the Super Bowl matchup between these two lines simply a one-off?
It looks more like the later of those two options, but there’s no doubt that the key to this game is the Denver’s defense’s ability to get to Newton. It’s up to the defense and rushing game for the Broncos to carry Siemian as his first game as the team’s starting QB.
Free ATS Pick
Cam Newton is motivated. He was so disgusted following the Super Bowl that he walked out on a postgame interview. He’ll be motivated to have a better showing against the Broncos defense and should have better protection to help him. He’ll also have an additional weapon in Benjamin.
Also, while Manning was just a shell of his former self last season, the all-time great quarterback is still more of a certainty when it comes to composure and poise than the second-year quarterback and first year starter in Siemian.
The defense is what brought Denver to the Super Bowl and it’s what will keep this team in this season opener, but Carolina’s defense isn’t a slouch even with Josh Norman bolting for Washington. The defense got plenty of attention in the offseason.
There’s enough here to cause issues for the rookie quarterback—particularly with the Panthers stacked on the line and the Broncos likely to lean so heavy on C.J. Anderson to take pressure off of Siemian. With the strong defense to match Denver’s and an offense that was the best in the game a season ago, this Super Bowl rematch should go to the Panthers. Playing in the thin air of Denver could make it close.
NFL Odds: Panthers 24, Broncos 17
BookMaker offers play-by-play betting odds for live sporting events every day! The user-friendly wagering interface on your smartphone provides an easy way to place bets on the go. Mobile betting lines are updated by the minute, so click here to start gambling on thrilling live action at BookMaker Sportsbook!
