The Houston Texans kick off the defense of their AFC South title in Week 1 against a Chicago Bears team that enters 2016 off its second straight losing season and first under the watch of John Fox. Bill O’Brien will finally get to unleash his new offensive toys in Brock Osweiler and Lamar Miller with the Bears hoping the defensive additions made in the offseason will be up to the challenge of keeping them in check.
This matchup in Week 1 of the regular season will take place on Sunday, September 11, 2016, at 1 p.m. ET at NRG Stadium.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Chicago Bears +6.5
Houston Texans -6.5
Over/Under 44
Odds Analysis
The total for this Week 1 clash hasn’t budged since opening at 44, and it doesn’t look to be moving anytime soon with just 53.9 percent of the money riding the under. My guess is that this number heads closer to 40 than it does 50 come kickoff.
Where we have seen a bunch of movement is with the pointspread. The Texans originally opened up as 4 point home chalk and were subsequently bet up to -4.5, -5.5, -6 and now -6.5. I don’t foresee this reaching or even crossing the -7 point threshold with only 60 percent of the money riding the Texans. Look for the juice to adjust before linemakers give a full touchdown to Chicago.
Injury Report
Kyle Long – The last thing the Bears wanted to deal with on an offensive line already thinned out due to the torn ACL sustained by Hroniss Grasu before the preseason even kicked off is another injury. Be that as it may, Pro Bowl guard Kyle Long is listed as questionable for this game with a labrum issue in his shoulder. If you can’t extend with force as a lineman, you’re worthless. His absence would be a huge detriment to the Bears run game and pass protection.
J. J. Watt – When you lead the league in sacks two of the last four seasons, opposing teams take notice when you’re not in the lineup. That’s the predicament Houston faces right now with it still unknown whether the defenses most tenacious piece to the puzzle will even suit up. While listed as probable to go after sitting out the preseason to rehab from offseason back surgery, you never know how his body will react come game day. Keep your ear to the ground for any and all info before kickoff.
Matchup to Watch
Osweiler will be making his Texans debut against a Bears defense he got to see in Week 11 last season. The Broncos pulled out an ugly 17-15 win with Osweiler completing 20 of his 27 passes for 250 yards and two touchdowns – one of which went for 48 yards early in the first quarter.
Chicago excelled defending the pass a year ago ranking out as the No. 2 unit in the NFC and No. 4 overall. While some of that had to do with the rush defense being wretched, it also had to do with Vic Fangio’s cover guys doing their jobs. Bottling Lamar Miller and company up on the ground will go a long way towards limiting the amount of damage Osweiler can do. He got 170 yards at 4.7 yards per carry the last time he ran up against the Bears, and if that happens again today, it’ll be lights out baby.
Free ATS Pick
Who the heck are the Texans to be laying nearly a touchdown to anyone the first week of the season? This is the most chalk they’ve laid in over a year! The defending NFC South champs you say? La de freaking da! That division was a joke, and it could be again in 2016 with the average season long win total averaging out at 7.75. That’s less than .500 folks!
Last we saw Houston on its home field, it was shutout by the Kansas City Chiefs 30-0 in the Wildcard round. In the regular season, it went 5-3 SU and ATS with three of the wins coming against Tampa Bay, Tennessee, and Jacksonville – three teams that wrapped the season with losing records. Call me skeptical.
What I do know is that Houston is an under machine at home where it surrendered an average of 17.2 points per game and cashed under tickets at a 6-3 clip. Add that to the improvements the Bears made on the defensive side of the ball, and you have the perfect recipe for a competitive low scorer.
NFL Odds: Texans 21, Bears 20
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